With the Premier League kicking off in just a matter of days, fans are already buzzing with predictions.
And according to a powerful football prediction model, it looks like Erling Haaland is set to dominate the scoring charts once again — leaving Mohamed Salah and the rest of the pack trailing behind.
Supercomputer Predicts Haaland to Lead the Scoring Race
A Premier League supercomputer, fed by mountains of data and simulations, has placed Haaland as the runaway favorite to claim the Golden Boot this season.
According to the numbers crunched by CasinoHawks, the Manchester City star has a 64.9% chance of finishing as the league’s top scorer.
That puts him far ahead of his closest rival, Mohamed Salah, who trails with just an 11% chance — a staggering gap of nearly 54 percentage points.
Last Season’s Numbers and the Reset Button
Let’s rewind to last season: Salah outscored everyone with 29 goals, comfortably topping the charts.
Newcastle’s Alexander Isak followed with 23, and Haaland came third with 22.
But as with every new campaign, the slate gets wiped clean — and all eyes will be on Anfield this Friday night when Liverpool open the season against Bournemouth.
It’ll be the perfect opportunity for Salah to set the tone early. But the odds are stacked against him.
The AFCON Factor: Salah Set to Miss Crucial Matches
One big reason Salah’s chances are lower this time around? The Africa Cup of Nations.
The tournament, which runs from December 21, 2025 to January 18, 2026, is likely to see Salah represent Egypt.
And if his national team makes a deep run, he could miss up to six Premier League matches — nearly 16% of the season.
That kind of absence could be costly in the race for the Golden Boot, especially when competing with someone as consistent (and injury-free) as Haaland.
Who Else Is in the Running?
While Haaland and Salah top the list, there are a few surprising names in the chasing pack:
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Viktor Gyokeres (Arsenal): 4.9% chance
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Chris Wood (Nottingham Forest): 4.4% chance
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Cole Palmer (Chelsea): 1.9% chance
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Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa): 1.2% chance
It’s clear that the odds drop off dramatically after the top two.
Breaking Down the Expected Goals (xG)
The model didn’t just look at past goals — it also factored in expected goals (xG), offering deeper insight into how many goals each player is likely to score based on the quality of chances they typically get.
Here’s what the xG model shows:
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Haaland: 24.2 expected goals
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Salah: 18.2 expected goals
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Gyokeres: 16.3
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Chris Wood: 16.1
Even players like Florian Wirtz and Joao Pedro are forecasted to score around 8.8 goals, while Matheus Cunha is projected at 8.2.
How the Predictions Were Calculated
The data scientists behind the prediction used a simulation-based model.
They started by calculating each player’s xG based on past performances.
Then, they ran 100,000 simulations, using a Poisson distribution to predict how many goals each player might score this season.
In the end, Haaland consistently came out on top — and by a wide margin.
What to Expect as the Season Begins
With the season about to start, these projections give us a glimpse into what might unfold.
Haaland is clearly the frontrunner, but football has a funny way of throwing surprises our way.
Injuries, form dips, or even an unexpected breakout star could shake things up.
For now, though, the numbers are placing their bets — and they’re betting big on Haaland.
