As the world continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic, the question of where and how Covid-19 really began is still up for debate.
Now, a group of scientists in California thinks they’ve gotten a little closer to the answer — and their findings are raising eyebrows.
Tracing the Virus Back to Its Roots — And It Might Go Back to 2012
A research team from the University of California, San Diego says the Covid-causing virus, SARS-CoV-2, might have started evolving in bats as far back as 2012.
What’s even more surprising?
They say this likely happened not just in China but in a region stretching from western China into northern Laos.
The team examined more than 100 coronaviruses found in horseshoe bats and compared them with both SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 — the virus behind the 2002 SARS outbreak.
By doing this, they pieced together what they believe is the most complete viral family tree yet.
The Closest Relatives to Covid’s Virus Were Found Years Before Wuhan
Their analysis revealed that the closest viral relatives to SARS-CoV-2 likely appeared 5–7 years before the world first heard of Covid in Wuhan.
The same goes for the original SARS virus, which had distant relatives showing up nearly 10 years before that outbreak began in Guangdong, southern China.
In both cases, the earliest versions of these viruses were found up to 1,200 miles from where the human outbreaks actually happened.
That’s a huge distance, and it’s got scientists thinking about how the virus might’ve made the leap to people.
If Not Bats, Then Who Carried It?
Bats aren’t exactly frequent flyers.
Horseshoe bats usually stick to small territories just a few miles wide.
So how did a virus found in remote bat caves end up in crowded city markets?
The researchers believe the answer lies in other animals — like raccoon dogs or civets — which were likely caught in the wild and moved by traders to live-animal markets in cities.
This mirrors what happened with SARS in 2002, when palm civets were traced as the middleman between bats and humans in Chinese wet markets.
Wuhan Markets May Still Be the Key Piece of the Puzzle
The UC San Diego team also pointed out that in late 2019, four live animal markets in Wuhan were selling animals known to catch and carry bat viruses.
To them, this is some of the clearest evidence yet that these markets could have played a central role in how Covid made its way to humans.
Dr. Joel Wertheim, one of the lead authors of the study, responded to skeptics who have long questioned how a virus from bats in far-off regions could have ended up in Wuhan.
His answer?
It’s happened before — with SARS — and it’s not as far-fetched as some might think.
But Can We Completely Rule Out the Lab Leak Theory?
While the researchers strongly support the idea of a natural origin, they also admit their study doesn’t entirely shut the door on the lab leak theory.
Plenty of scientists and intelligence agencies — including the FBI and CIA — still believe the virus might have leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where similar viruses were being studied at the time.
So while this study adds weight to the animal-trade theory, it doesn’t serve as absolute proof.
Experts Still Want More Data Before Drawing Final Conclusions
Dr. Simon Clarke, a UK-based infectious disease expert who wasn’t part of the research, said the paper does offer compelling support for a natural origin.
However, he noted that proving it conclusively is still difficult — especially when we know the Wuhan lab had been collecting wild viruses for research.
That said, Clarke added that the journal publishing the paper is highly reputable, and the research likely went through intense scrutiny before it was accepted.
A Smarter Way to Study Viruses — And A Step Closer to the Truth
One standout feature of the study was how the researchers refined their methods.
They removed parts of the virus genome that tend to “shuffle” between viruses — a natural process called recombination that often complicates efforts to track where a virus came from.
By doing this, they were able to create a much clearer and more reliable viral timeline — the most accurate one we’ve seen so far, according to the team.
Meanwhile, China Points the Finger at the United States
Not surprisingly, the politics surrounding Covid’s origin haven’t cooled down.
Just last week, China released a white paper claiming that America might actually be the source of the pandemic.
The document, published by China’s State Council Information Office, was a direct response to claims from the Trump campaign suggesting Covid leaked from the Wuhan lab.
Chinese officials accused the U.S. of avoiding responsibility for its pandemic response and turning the origin story into a political blame game.
They even called for a thorough investigation into the origins of the virus within the U.S., urging American leaders to “give a responsible answer to the world.”
So, What Happens Next?
With each new study and every political jab, the mystery around Covid’s origins becomes more layered — and more global.
While this latest research leans toward a natural, animal-linked origin, the debate is far from over.
Whether the virus jumped from bats to people via a live market or slipped out of a lab, one thing’s for sure: the world deserves a clearer answer.
And slowly, piece by piece, science might just deliver it.