New York has long been a stronghold for the Democratic Party, but recent polling shows that the state could become a battleground for Republicans in the upcoming gubernatorial race.
As Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul prepares to seek reelection in 2026, political experts are noting the shifting dynamics in the state’s political landscape.
A Shocking Poll for Kathy Hochul
A recent GrayHouse poll reveals some concerning news for Governor Hochul.
Only 36% of voters approve of her performance, while a whopping 55% disapprove.
According to a Republican political insider in New York, these numbers are disastrous for Hochul, particularly in a state that is predominantly Democratic.
In fact, even former President Donald Trump holds a higher approval rating than Hochul in New York.
While 43% of voters approve of Trump’s performance, 56% disapprove, showing a higher level of support for the Republican figure in a state that has largely favored Democrats.
The poll, conducted between April 22-28, surveyed 826 registered voters with a margin of error of 4 percentage points, and it highlights the growing discontent among New York voters.
Rising Republican Energy in the Empire State
Political consultants have taken notice of Trump’s growing support in New York, especially after his unexpected strong performance in the 2024 election.
His increased voter share has sparked hopes among Republicans that the state may be undergoing a rightward shift, a trend that could extend into the 2026 gubernatorial race.
Concerns over issues like crime, immigration, and corruption have led many voters to question the dominance of the Democratic Party in the state.
The state’s handling of COVID-19 restrictions and its ongoing leadership under Democrats have contributed to a growing desire for change among voters.
Republicans have been making significant gains in diverse communities, including Hispanic, Black, and Asian-American voters.
Suburban and working-class voters have responded positively to the GOP’s messaging on crime enforcement, immigration control, and addressing inflation.
Trump’s performance in the state was remarkable—he lost to Vice President Kamala Harris in 2020 by only 13 points, improving his share of the vote by 11 percentage points compared to 2016.
Additionally, Trump gained more than 600,000 votes in New York over the course of the 2016 and 2024 elections, making Harris’ margin of victory the narrowest for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since 1992.
Republicans Seeing Success at the Congressional Level
The Republican Party has also seen success at the congressional level.
In 2022, Republicans flipped four congressional seats in New York, which helped them secure a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.
In the 2022 gubernatorial race, Republican candidate Lee Zeldin came remarkably close to defeating Hochul, with a final vote tally of 47% to 53%.
With her approval ratings at an all-time low, Republicans are anticipating a possible rematch with Hochul in 2026.
The Potential for a Republican Challenge
Polling data from GrayHouse suggests that there is a significant appetite for change.
Sixty percent of voters across New York state say it’s “time for someone new.”
Among Independents, this figure rises to 75%, and even 34% of Democrats agree that a change in leadership is needed.
One potential challenger to Hochul is Rep. Elise Stefanik, who has garnered attention as a strong Republican figure in New York.
According to the poll, if Stefanik were to run for governor, she could pose a real challenge to Hochul.
Forty-six percent of voters said they would support Hochul, while 40% would back Stefanik. With 14% still undecided, the race appears to be much closer than one might expect.
Stefanik, who has not yet announced her candidacy, is already receiving widespread support from New York Republicans.
Forty-four percent of primary voters expressed interest in seeing her run for governor.
Only a small fraction, 7%, supported other Republican figures like Rep. Mike Lawler or Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman.
Stefanik Considers a Run for Governor
In a recent interview, Stefanik indicated that she is seriously considering a gubernatorial run.
“New York is moving in a more Republican direction, and that’s due to the failure of single-party Democratic rule under Kathy Hochul,” she told the Daily Mail.
Despite not being nominated for a role as Trump’s Ambassador to the U.N., Stefanik has continued to build momentum as a leading figure in the state’s Republican Party.
Stefanik has been crisscrossing the state, holding events and gathering support not only from Republicans but also from Independents and even some Democrats.
“It’s been overwhelming. Clearly, New Yorkers want to fire Kathy Hochul,” she said, noting the increasing enthusiasm for Republican candidates.
Stefanik also credited Trump’s rallies and events in the state for energizing the Republican base.
“Trump’s success in New York has shown that Republicans can make significant inroads in areas that were once firmly Democratic,” she said.
What’s Next for New York Politics?
As the 2026 gubernatorial race looms, the momentum behind New York Republicans continues to grow.
With Hochul’s approval ratings sinking, the stage may be set for a competitive race.
Whether Stefanik or another Republican candidate steps forward, it’s clear that New York politics are undergoing a shift that could alter the state’s political landscape for years to come.