A major shift in U.S. immigration policy is sending shockwaves through the business world.
President Donald Trump’s administration has rolled out a staggering $100,000 charge for every skilled worker visa application, and experts say it could have far-reaching economic consequences.
The White House confirmed that the levy will be applied immediately whenever companies request to bring in foreign workers through the H-1B program.
Analysts warn that the move could slow economic growth, squeeze the labor force, and even push the United States closer to recession.
Technology Sector Feels the Pressure
Of all industries, the U.S. technology sector may be hit hardest.
Tech giants—from Silicon Valley startups to global corporations—rely heavily on overseas talent to fill specialized roles.
With such a hefty fee in place, many businesses may hesitate to hire the talent they need, creating a ripple effect across the industry.
Investment bank Berenberg described the decision as another “anti-growth policy mistake.”
On Monday, it cut its U.S. growth forecast from 2% down to 1.5% for the year, warning that the cost of foreign labor will drag on productivity and innovation.
Concerns About a Shrinking Workforce
Economist Atakan Bakiskan painted an even grimmer picture.
He pointed out that deportation drives, threats to revoke work permits, and an unwelcoming environment for migrants have already caused labor force growth to stall.
Now, with the steep H-1B fee, he says the pool of workers may actually shrink.
“The future of growth now depends almost entirely on productivity gains,” Bakiskan explained.
“But by discouraging foreign students from staying after graduation and pricing out skilled workers, America risks a brain drain that will weigh heavily on productivity.”
Risks of a Slowdown or Recession
Bakiskan cautioned that even the new 1.5% growth projection “may soon look optimistic.”
He listed a range of risks: weakening trust in U.S. institutions, tariffs, fiscal mismanagement, and growing uncertainty in financial markets.
Together, these factors could set the stage for stagnation or even a financial crisis.
He warned that in the long run, these policies could weaken the dollar, raise borrowing costs, and drag down the country’s global competitiveness.
Britain Takes the Opposite Approach
Interestingly, across the Atlantic, the UK appears to be moving in the opposite direction.
Reports suggest Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government is considering slashing or even abolishing some visa fees for highly skilled workers in fields like science, medicine, and digital technology.
Britain’s Global Talent Visa, launched in 2020, currently costs £766 to apply for, plus an annual health surcharge of £1,035.
Despite these costs, applications have surged, with nearly 4,000 people granted visas in the year to June 2023—a 73% rise from the year before.
By cutting costs, the UK hopes to attract even more top international talent, bolstering industries that rely on expertise from abroad.
Market Reactions and Investor Concerns
Investors are already eyeing the fallout.
Neil Wilson of Saxo Markets said the U.S. visa move could prove “tricky” for tech and finance companies, potentially denting their stock values.
Amazon, for instance, employs around 14,000 workers through H-1B visas alone.
Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, added that Wall Street futures were already pointing lower after hitting record highs last week.
Markets, she said, are bracing for the full impact of Trump’s visa crackdown.
What’s Next for Growth and Talent?
The question now is whether U.S. companies can continue to grow without the influx of global talent they’ve long depended on.
Analysts say it’s possible—but growth will likely be slower, riskier, and far more dependent on domestic productivity gains.
Meanwhile, Britain may gain an edge by lowering barriers for skilled workers, setting up a sharp contrast between Washington’s closed-door approach and London’s open-door strategy.
For businesses, workers, and investors on both sides of the Atlantic, the next few months could be decisive in shaping the future of innovation and economic growth.