Today, Boris Johnson faces a dramatic vote of no confidence from Tory MPs who want to depose him.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, said this morning that the 54 letters from party members required to trigger a vote have now been received.
The secret ballot, which will take place between 6 and 8 p.m. at Westminster, raises the potential that Mr Johnson’s presidency will come to an end less than three years after he gained a spectacular 80-seat Commons majority.
Following Sue Gray’s exposé into unlawful Covid parties in No 10 and Whitehall, a constant stream of Tory MPs publicly called for the Prime Minister to resign.
The rebels will require 180 MPs to unseat the Prime Minister, and Mr Johnson’s backers, including Cabinet ministers, have made it clear that he is determined to keep his job.
The following are the most important questions surrounding the next election.
What is the mechanism for removing the Tory leader?
Conservative Party rules allow MPs to trigger a vote of no confidence in their leader, with Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee, bearing much of the blame.
A total of 54 letters of no confidence from Tory MPs, representing 15% of the party’s 360 members, are required to force a vote.
In recent days, Sir Graham has received a steady stream of letters as Conservatives spent time in their constituencies consulting local parties about their positions.
After waiting for the Platinum Jubilee celebrations to end, he announced this morning that the threshold had been reached.
For the Prime Minister to lose, at least 50% of Tory MPs must vote ‘no confidence.’
How many Tory MPs have sent letters so far?
We know there must have been more than 54 letters sent in to trigger the no-confidence vote, but the actual number is secret unless the MP who sent it makes it public.
That means only Sir Graham knows exactly how many letters are in use at any given time, and he is notorious for keeping figures to himself.
Last week, Tory MPs announced that they had submitted letters of no confidence in their leader almost every day.
More than 30 Tory MPs have publicly pushed the PM to resign amid the aftermath from Partygate, but they have not all stated if they have written letters.
Jesse Norman – a long-term supporter of Mr Johnson – today became the third Tory MP to say that he had submitted a letter to Sir Graham.
Mr Norman, the MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire, said Mr Johnson presided over a “culture of casual law-breaking” in No 10 in a letter posted on social media.
Why now?
Mr Johnson became the first serving UK Prime Minister to be found guilty of breaking the law earlier this year.
After incurring a single punishment for attending a lockdown-breaching event at Downing Street in 2020 during the coronavirus outbreak, he refused to step down.
However, support for him among Conservatives has dwindled in recent weeks, following the publication of an internal investigation that found he presided over a culture of late-night parties that included a drunken brawl among staff.
A number of Tory MPs have stated that they do not believe Mr Johnson can lead the party to victory in the next general election.
Opinion polls show widespread public disapproval of the scandal, with large majorities of respondents saying he lied about ‘Partygate’ and should resign.
During his tenure, the Conservatives have experienced multiple electoral reverses, including losing typically safe seats to the Liberal Democrats in by-elections and hundreds of councillors in early May local elections.
Later this month, the party is expected to lose two additional by-elections in southwest and northern England.
When will the outcome be made public?
A simple yes-or-no vote is held, with the leader technically only needing the support of a simple majority of MPs to be elected.
Sir Graham said that details about when the announcement will be made public will be released “later today.”
Given that the results will be counted right away and that there aren’t a lot of ballot papers to go through, it’ll probably happen quickly.
Sir Graham is likely to repeat his 2018 strategy of gathering MPs and journalists in the same committee room where voting took place earlier in the day.
He will then reveal whether or not the parliamentary party has confidence in Mr Johnson, as well as the number of votes cast on each side.
Sir Graham expressed his hope for a “clear result.”
What happens if he is defeated?
If the leader does not receive a majority of votes from MPs, he or she is fired, and a leadership election is held in which they are unable to compete.
They usually remain in office as Prime Minister until a successor is elected.
In a leadership election, MPs narrow the field down to two candidates before party members vote.
What is the procedure for a Tory leadership election?
If Mr Johnson is forced to resign or is voted out, a leadership contest to replace him as Tory Party leader will be held, though he is likely to stay on as Prime Minister until a successor is found.
The contest takes place in two stages.
In the first stage, Conservative MPs put themselves forward as candidates.
After that, all Tory MPs vote in a series of rounds to narrow the field down to just two candidates.
The two remaining candidates will be placed to a vote by Conservative Party members in the second round of the contest.
Following Theresa May’s resignation, Mr Johnson defeated Jeremy Hunt in the 2019 leadership election.
And what happens if he makes it?
If Mr Johnson survives, the 1922 Committee will be unable to hold another confidence vote for another year due to Conservative Party rules.
Sir Graham today admitted that even if Mr Johnson survives tonight’s vote, he will not necessarily be secure.
Despite the fact that the Conservative committee’s rules state that there can’t be another confidence vote for a year, Sir Graham believes the rules might be amended.
‘Technically, rules can be modified, but the current rule is that there will be a period of grace,’ he told reporters.
Even if Mr Johnson survives the vote this evening, his leadership could be jeopardized if a sizable number of MPs vote against him.
Could he quit even if he only wins by a slim margin?
Technically, yes, but the signs from Number 10 indicate that he is eager to fight on.
‘Tonight is an opportunity to put an end to months of uncertainty and allow the government to draw a line and move on, delivering on the people’s objectives,’ said a Downing Street spokesman.
‘The Prime Minister welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs and will remind them that there is no more formidable political force when they are unified and focused on the issues that important to voters.’
His reputation as a political survivor who has previously resisted numerous calls to resign suggests he would have to be forced out.
What if he decided to leave right away?
While a leadership election was held, the cabinet would agree on a temporary successor.
Dominic Raab, Mr Johnson’s deputy, is the most likely candidate.
Who could take Mr Johnson’s place?
One major issue for the insurgents is the lack of a clear replacement for Mr Johnson.
Rishi Sunak, who was previously considered the front runner, was also fined over Partygate, and there is no other front runner.
Former Cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt has been mentioned as a possible candidate, while Defence Secretary Ben Wallace is popular among party members. Tom Tugendhat is the only MP who has openly declared his desire to be Prime Minister.
When was the last time the mechanism for replacing the leader was used?
The last confidence vote was held in December 2018, after months of uncertainty, when a sufficient number of MPs decided they no longer trusted Theresa May’s leadership.
She won the contest by a vote of 200 to 117, putting her immune to future challenges for a year.
However, she was forced to quit the following spring amid another Brexit uprising, paving the door for Mr Johnson to take over.
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