Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Surges in Polls as Tories Face Historic Low

Britain’s political landscape looks set for a seismic shake-up, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK riding high in the latest polling and the Conservative Party staring at historic losses.

According to an exclusive megapoll shared with the Daily Mail, Reform is on course to secure 445 seats, leaving the Tories with just seven MPs if an election were held tomorrow.

Labour and Tactical Voting Could Tip the Balance

While the numbers spell disaster for Labour, which is predicted to fall to 73 seats, there’s a twist: tactical voting could block Farage’s dominance.

More than a third of Labour supporters said they might back the Tories to prevent Reform from sweeping to power.

The seat-by-seat survey was conducted by communications firm PLMR in partnership with Electoral Calculus, using MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) — a method widely regarded as one of the most accurate ways to forecast seat counts.

Smaller Parties Gain Ground

Other parties also made modest gains, according to the poll of 7,449 adults conducted from September 10 to 18, before the party conference season.

Liberal Democrats are projected to win 42 seats
SNP is forecasted at 41 seats
Your Party, led by Jeremy Corbyn, could secure 13 seats

The Tories ranked sixth, narrowly ahead of the Greens (6 MPs) and Plaid Cymru (5 MPs).

High-Profile MPs Could Lose Their Seats

The polling paints a grim picture for many senior politicians.

Reform UK could potentially unseat several high-profile Labour and Conservative figures, including:

Chancellor Rachel Reeves
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband

Your Party could claim seats from Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting, while Reform might also knock out Tory heavyweights like Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, Rishi Sunak, and Iain Duncan Smith.

Economy and Cost of Living Dominate Voter Priorities

Even with three years until the next general election, voters are already clear on their priorities.

The economy and cost of living topped the list, with 59% ranking it as their most urgent concern.

Other priorities included:

Immigration and border control (47%)
NHS (44%)
Crime, justice, and policing (22%)

PLMR CEO Kevin Craig highlighted the shift in voter expectations: “The electorate is demanding action on the economy first and foremost. Traditional party loyalties are under unprecedented pressure.

It’s time to forget slogans and focus on putting more money into working people’s pockets.”

Political Landscape Remains Volatile

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, emphasized the volatility of the current political scene.

“Anti-Reform tactical voting could see Farage losing dozens of seats, but the rise of Your Party further fragments the left-of-centre vote, benefiting Reform UK while hurting Labour,” he explained.

Baxter added that with the Autumn Budget in November, voters are making their priorities clear: the economy, immigration, and the NHS are at the top of the agenda.

How Labour responds could determine whether the party defends its leadership or slips further behind as Reform consolidates its gains.

What the Poll Signals for the Future

In short, the survey underscores a potential political earthquake: Reform UK could dominate the Commons, Labour is at risk of collapse, and the Tories face an historic nadir.

Voters are signaling that practical issues like cost of living and NHS services matter more than ever, putting pressure on all parties to deliver tangible results ahead of 2029.