New York Assemblyman Clyde Vanel has reignited a legislative effort to restrict certain prediction markets, including popular platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
His proposed bill, known as the ORACLE Act (Oversight and Regulation of Activity for Contracts Linked to Events), aims to regulate and limit the types of event-related contracts that can be offered in the state.
Vanel originally introduced this legislation in November, and he brought it back to the New York State Assembly earlier this week, hoping to curb some of the growing concerns around prediction markets.
The bill seeks to restrict betting on various events, from politics to sports and beyond.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
In recent months, prediction markets have gained significant attention.
These platforms allow users to place bets on the outcomes of a wide range of events—everything from elections to sports games.
Sports betting, in particular, has proven to be extremely lucrative. According to research by Foresight Ventures, sports-related markets account for as much as 90% of Kalshi’s trading volume.
While prediction markets offer an exciting opportunity for gamblers, they’ve also raised alarm among regulators, who have questioned whether these platforms should be subject to the same rules that govern traditional gambling.
The ORACLE Act: A Closer Look
The ORACLE Act has several key provisions that would have a major impact on how prediction markets operate in New York. If passed, the bill would:
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Ban Sports Betting on Specific Games: The bill would prohibit markets on the outcome of individual games, such as NFL matches during the season. However, markets predicting outcomes for larger events, like the Super Bowl, would still be allowed.
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Ban Prop Betting: The bill would also eliminate so-called “prop bets,” which are wagers focused on specific details of a game, like who will score first or which player will make a particular play.
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Limit Other Event Contracts: Beyond sports, the bill would extend to other types of markets, including those that focus on political events, disasters, or even personal tragedies.
Suggested Readings (News continues below)
A Crackdown on “Death Markets” and Speculation
One of the more controversial aspects of the ORACLE Act is its proposal to ban “death markets.”
These markets allow people to bet on the death of specific individuals—often celebrities or public figures.
Such markets have long been criticized for their ethical implications, and Vanel’s bill would shut them down entirely.
Additionally, the bill would prohibit markets focused on sensitive or tragic events, such as:
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Elections and political outcomes
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Natural or man-made disasters
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Mass shootings, acts of terrorism, or public health crises
It would also eliminate contracts tied to the price movements of publicly traded companies, something that could shake up how certain financial predictions are made.
Self-Exclusion and Accountability Measures
Alongside the regulatory restrictions, the ORACLE Act would impose new safeguards for users.
Platforms offering prediction markets would be required to implement self-exclusion features, allowing users to limit how much time and money they spend on the site.
This would be a crucial step in promoting responsible gambling, especially given the addictive nature of such platforms.
Consequences for Non-Compliance
The bill includes serious penalties for platforms that continue to operate in New York despite being ordered to stop.
If a platform ignores the directive and keeps offering restricted markets, they would face fines of up to $1 million per day until they comply with the law.
The Legal Backdrop: Kalshi’s Ongoing Fight
This proposed bill is not the first time prediction markets have clashed with state regulators.
In fact, Kalshi has found itself in legal battles with gambling regulators across various states, including New York.
The company has argued that it should be regulated under federal law, not state-level gambling rules, leading to ongoing litigation.
What’s Next for Prediction Markets?
While the ORACLE Act is still making its way through the legislative process, it marks a significant step in the broader conversation about the future of prediction markets.
The bill seeks to balance innovation in the betting space with the need for ethical oversight and consumer protection.
As more states and countries begin to take a closer look at how to regulate these platforms, it will be interesting to see how the legal landscape evolves.
For now, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are likely to remain at the center of debates about the future of betting in the digital age.
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