As Nigeria steps into the 2026 fiscal year, the Naira is showing something many market watchers have been hoping for: steadiness.
Across both official and street-level markets, the local currency has largely held its ground, reflecting the Central Bank of Nigeria’s continued push for tighter controls and deeper reforms.
While challenges remain, the mood at the opening of the year feels noticeably more composed than it did a year ago.
How the Naira Is Faring at the Official Window
Trading at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) opened on a stable note.
According to figures from the FMDQ Securities Exchange, the Naira is currently exchanging at about ₦1,427.52 to the US dollar.
What stands out isn’t just the number itself, but how little it has moved compared to the end of last year.
That narrow range suggests the CBN’s drive toward a more transparent and liquid FX market is beginning to take hold.
Analysts point to the central bank’s confidence in Nigeria’s external position, with projections showing foreign reserves climbing to roughly $51.04 billion by the end of 2026.
Stronger oil receipts and steady inflows from Nigerians abroad are expected to play a big role in that growth.
A Look at the Street Market
Over in the parallel market, the story is similar, though at slightly higher rates.
Early quotes from Bureau de Change operators in major cities like Lagos and Abuja put the dollar at around ₦1,435 to ₦1,440.
While the informal market still trades at a premium, the difference between it and the official rate has shrunk considerably over the past year.
This narrowing gap is no accident. It aligns with the government’s broader goal of cutting down on speculation and encouraging businesses and individuals to source foreign exchange through banks and other regulated channels instead of the black market.
Why the Naira Is Holding Up
Several forces are working together to support the currency at the moment:
First, the outlook for Nigeria’s external reserves is boosting confidence.
Even the expectation of stronger reserves can influence market behavior, helping to calm nerves and reduce panic-driven demand for dollars.
Second, local refining is beginning to change the FX equation.
With increased capacity—especially from the Dangote Refinery—the country is importing less fuel.
That reduction eases one of the biggest drains on foreign exchange demand.
Finally, policy consistency is playing its part.
Investors appear encouraged by the CBN’s “Consolidating Macroeconomic Stability” agenda, which aims to push headline inflation down to about 12.94% before the year ends.
Clear targets and consistent messaging tend to matter just as much as the policies themselves.
What’s Next?
As full trading activity continues into the first week of 2026, market participants are keeping a close eye on the CBN.
Further interventions, policy signals, or shifts in global oil prices could all influence the next move.
For now, though, the Naira seems to be starting the year on steadier footing—something that hasn’t always been guaranteed in recent times.
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