With immigration still a top political hot topic, Labour’s brand-new deal with France is already under scrutiny—less than a month after it was announced.
What was initially presented as a game-changing agreement to tackle the small boats crisis is now facing tough questions about how long it will last, how many people it will actually affect, and whether it can withstand legal pushback.
Deal Set to Expire Before Next Peak Season Even Begins
It turns out the much-publicised agreement between Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron isn’t built to last.
The pact, aimed at returning some migrants who arrive in the UK by small boat, is set to expire at the end of June next year—just 11 months after it’s launched.
That means it could be off the table before next summer’s surge in Channel crossings even begins.
There was no mention of this expiration date when the deal was originally unveiled, which is only adding to the political blowback.
‘One In, One Out’ Scheme Raises More Questions Than Answers
Under the new agreement, migrants arriving illegally via small boats could be detained and returned to France rather than being placed in taxpayer-funded asylum hotels.
The plan follows a “one in, one out” model, where Britain would also take in migrants from France who have stronger asylum claims.
But so far, the Home Office hasn’t confirmed how many people will actually be returned.
While there were reports suggesting around 50 returns per week, that only adds up to about 2,350 people before the deal runs out—compared to more than 25,000 migrants who have already crossed the Channel this year alone.
Legal Battles May Be Looming
If this sounds familiar, that’s because it is. Pro-migrant organisations are already hinting at legal challenges—much like the ones that stalled, and eventually helped block, the Conservative government’s Rwanda deportation scheme.
Groups like Care4Calais have already said they’re “considering all options” to fight the new policy, which they claim puts lives at risk and reduces people to numbers in a political trade.
Politics Behind the Expiry Date
The short duration of the deal may have more to do with French politics than British border plans.
President Macron isn’t allowed to run for a third term in next year’s presidential election, so this agreement only covers the time he has left in office.
Any incoming French leader would have the choice to renew it—or scrap it entirely.
The Home Office said the UK and France plan to “continually review and improve” the scheme in the coming months, but made no long-term promises.
Government Sticks to Its Message Despite Uncertainty
Prime Minister Starmer defended the deal, calling it a result of “grown-up diplomacy” that would strike at the business model of people smugglers.
He insisted the days of “gimmicks and broken promises” are over and promised a more serious, competent approach to border control.
Still, his critics—particularly from the opposition—are not convinced.
Conservatives Slam Labour for Scrapping Rwanda Plan
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp didn’t hold back in his response.
He criticised the plan as “meagre” and “short-term,” arguing that it will end before it has a chance to make a real difference.
He also took aim at Labour for cancelling the Rwanda scheme, which he claimed was ready to begin and would have led to the deportation of all illegal arrivals.
According to Philp, Labour ditched that plan without offering a proper replacement—and as a result, 2025 is already shaping up to be the worst year on record for illegal Channel crossings.
What Happens to New Arrivals from This Week
Starting Wednesday, newly arrived migrants crossing the Channel will be taken to the Home Office’s Manston processing centre in Kent.
From there, those selected for return under the new deal will be moved to short-term holding facilities at Heathrow or Gatwick.
They’ll undergo screening interviews, and if approved for removal, will likely be flown back to France via chartered flights.
The government has already reserved detention space in preparation for the rollout.
Government Braces for Legal Pushback
The Home Office seems aware that legal challenges are coming—and says it’s ready.
Officials claim they’ve learned lessons from the Rwanda policy debacle and are prepared to “robustly defend” the new scheme, especially in its pilot phase.
They also say they plan to increase the pace and number of returns if the pilot proves effective.
France-Based Applicants Could Apply Online—But With Strict Rules
Interestingly, migrants already in France could apply online for entry into the UK under this scheme—but not if they’ve previously tried to cross illegally.
Each applicant would have to undergo thorough security checks, and any history of unlawful entry would disqualify them.