The festive season is bringing some cheer for Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives, with a new poll showing her party closing in on Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
The end-of-year survey puts the Tories at 22 per cent, up from 20 per cent last month, narrowing the gap with Reform to just three points.
Meanwhile, Farage’s party has slipped to 25 per cent, signaling potential turbulence in Right-wing politics as the year winds down.
Reform UK’s Lead Shrinks Dramatically
A month ago, Reform UK enjoyed a seven-point lead, suggesting Farage could have been within striking distance of Downing Street.
The latest figures, however, show that any path for him to the premiership would likely require a deal with the Conservatives.
Voter doubts about whether Reform can move beyond being a “Nigel Farage show” are starting to grow, with only 17 per cent believing the party has enough talent to form an effective government.
Labour and the Left Face a Tough Road
Labour continues to struggle, languishing in fourth place just behind Zack Polanski’s Greens.
Aggregating support for the Left—Labour, Greens, and the Lib Dems—shows they collectively reach 47 per cent, the same as the combined backing for Tories and Reform.
This means that if the Right cannot unite, the Left could still find a path to sustained influence.
For Labour supporters, however, the focus remains on whether new leadership, such as Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, or Angela Rayner, could turn fortunes around.
Badenoch Builds Momentum With Stronger Profile
Badenoch’s rise in the polls comes after several weeks of assured performances in the Commons and the rollout of fresh policies.
She has been highlighting perceived disarray in Sir Keir Starmer’s government while proposing tangible ideas, including abolishing stamp duty and scrapping the ban on new petrol and diesel cars after 2030.
These moves seem to have resonated with voters and quelled some unrest on her backbenches.
The Christmas Poll Fun and Festive Rankings
The survey also had a lighter, festive side, revealing which leaders voters would most like to spend Christmas with.
Farage topped the list for New Year’s Eve companionship, while also ranking highest for traits like “most likely to hide in the pub until Christmas lunch is ready” or “most likely to burn the lunch.”
Sir Keir was pegged as the one most likely to deliver a boring speech or sneak away to work, while Badenoch earned praise for being helpful and topping the “kiss under the mistletoe” category.
Economic Worries Cast a Shadow
Despite the festive frivolity, the poll revealed concerns about household finances this Christmas.
Around 38 per cent of people expect to have less money to spend on gifts, while only 11 per cent anticipate being more generous than last year.
This economic strain adds a sobering note to the season, even as party politics dominate public conversation.
Election Mood and Voter Sentiment
Voter appetite for an early election remains significant, with 39 per cent wanting a ballot next year compared to 26 per cent willing to wait until 2029.
Labour die-hards are generally more patient, hoping the party can turn around its slump before the next general election.
Meanwhile, the Tories will be buoyed by the Christmas poll bounce, with Badenoch’s growing profile and strategic messaging giving them momentum heading into 2026.
What’s Next
As the year ends, political tensions remain high.
The Conservatives aim to maintain their momentum, Reform UK faces questions about long-term viability, and Labour works to rebuild confidence among supporters.
With economic pressures on households and a fresh election likely on voters’ minds, the new year promises to be anything but quiet on the political front.
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