As the government unveils its new plan to send small-boat migrants back to France, many are wondering whether this fresh approach will solve the Channel crossing crisis—or simply run into the same hurdles that plagued previous schemes like the Tories’ Rwanda plan.
The Home Office itself admits this deal could face legal battles that might slow things down.
Even if it gets rolling, questions remain about how much it will actually stop migrants from trying their luck crossing the Channel.
What Does the New Deal Actually Say?
Details are still sketchy, but the plan is expected to start small—returning maybe around 50 migrants per week at first.
Considering there have been over 44,000 small-boat arrivals since Labour took office (not counting the latest ones), this small number may barely make a dent.
Many migrants might simply keep trying, given the slim chance of being sent back.
Officials say any adult arriving by small boat could be selected for removal, but how they pick who goes back is still unclear.
The government says revealing the selection process could ruin how the scheme works.
Once selected, migrants’ asylum claims would be deemed “inadmissible” under existing laws, and they’d be held in detention centers before being flown back to France.
They wouldn’t be returned to northern France near Calais, but rather further away, presumably to disrupt smugglers’ usual routes.
Legal and Political Hurdles Loom Large
The deal still needs approval from the European Commission, which might object since immigration policy is generally managed at the EU level.
Plus, pro-migrant groups could challenge the plan in court, just like they did with the Rwanda scheme.
Officials remain confident, arguing that France is a safe country and meets human rights standards, which should help them defend the policy.
Who Gets to Come to Britain in Return?
This isn’t just about sending migrants back.
For every person sent to France, Britain will take in another from France through a legal route—people who apply online, pass security checks, and fit certain criteria.
The government is prioritizing migrants most vulnerable to trafficking and those from countries with high asylum approval rates, like Sudan, Syria, and Eritrea.
But anyone caught entering illegally by small boat won’t qualify for this new legal pathway.
Will This Really Stop Migrants from Coming?
It seems doubtful. People willing to risk dangerous Channel crossings aren’t likely to be deterred by the chance of being sent back to France.
Critics, including the Conservatives, have already dismissed the deal as weak and ineffective compared to the previous Rwanda plan, which sent people thousands of miles away.
What About the Smugglers?
Prime Minister Keir Starmer claims this will “break the business model” of smugglers.
But criminal networks have had years to adapt and profit from Channel crossings.
They could easily adjust their tactics—maybe offering repeat crossings or shifting to other methods like hidden rides in trucks.
If migrants get sent back and try again, smugglers might just sell them “season tickets” to keep coming.
Meanwhile, some might avoid authorities altogether once inside the UK, slipping into illegal work and life off the grid—a return to older smuggling methods before the small boats became the main route.
Impact on Asylum Numbers and Channel Crossings
The number of asylum claims in the UK keeps rising, hitting record highs recently.
This new deal probably won’t lower overall claims, since it works on a “one for one” swap system, but it could reduce the number arriving by small boat at Dover.
In government terms, that might improve the “optics” of the problem even if the big picture doesn’t change much.
Will France Crack Down on Small Boats at Sea?
Many expected France to announce tougher measures allowing riot police to intercept migrant boats even after they’ve left the shore. But no such announcement came.
Instead, Sir Keir only said that the French maritime review is still “ongoing.”