Back in March 2021, when gold was trading at $1,690 per ounce (about R31,074), I recommended that investors seriously consider buying and accumulating the precious metal.

For those who’ve been following my posts since then, this recommendation has become a key point in my long-term investment strategy, and it’s one I still stand behind today.

The Case for Gold’s Continued Rise

Recently, I received an interesting question from a private credit fund manager based in the Middle East:

“Could a series of trade agreements cause a sharp decline in gold prices?” While short-term fluctuations in price are always a possibility, I’m confident that the factors driving gold’s rise in the long run remain as strong as ever.

Since my initial recommendation, gold has increased significantly in value.

By early 2025, the price target of $3,000 (R55,161) per ounce had already been reached, and on February 26, 2025, I revised my projection to $5,000 (R91,935) for the next 12 months.

Despite some expected volatility, with a 5–8% correction being normal in any healthy market trend, I don’t foresee a major crash, even with trade agreements potentially softening market headlines.

Understanding the Broader Economic Landscape

To truly grasp why gold’s value is expected to continue climbing, it’s important to take a look at the broader economic context.

In January 2016, I wrote about the major themes that would define the period between 2015 and 2033.

I argued that this era would be marked by seismic shifts similar to those seen between 1895 and 1913, a time of massive changes in industry, finance, geopolitics, and technology.

Consider these parallels:

Trade Protectionism: The 1897 tariffs under McKinley versus today’s US-China trade wars
Energy Transition: The move from coal and electrification back then to today’s focus on renewables and electric vehicles
Tech Disruption: The rise of the Model T, plastics, and radio compared to today’s advancements in AI, quantum computing, and robotics
Immigration Shifts: Major labor realignments in both eras
Financial Reset: The Panic of 1907 led to the formation of the Federal Reserve, and today’s financial system seems similarly overstretched
Isolationism: A shift from global integration, both then and now

In both time periods, gold has acted as a stabilizing force, not as a speculative asset, but as a pillar of trust and financial credibility.

Why Gold Remains a Crucial Investment

Looking at the world today, it’s clear that gold’s importance as a safe-haven asset is more relevant than ever:

Central banks in Asia and the Middle East are stockpiling gold
De-dollarization is accelerating, making gold even more valuable
Supply constraints are tightening the market, with fewer new discoveries, rising costs, and underinvestment
Geopolitical instability increases the demand for a neutral, stable store of value

While trade agreements and deals may dominate the headlines, they don’t resolve the deeper structural issues like fiscal fragility, currency erosion, or systemic dysfunction.

These issues are being reconfigured, but not fixed, which is why gold continues to be essential as a hedge against uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: A Target of $5,000

I’m sticking to my forecast of $5,000 per ounce (R91,935) within the next 12 months.

This isn’t just a random price prediction—it’s a well-thought-out thesis that has been evolving since my initial call in March 2021.

Rooted in a deep understanding of macroeconomics, history, geopolitics, and structural market trends, my analysis suggests the path to this target is open and very much achievable.

The key question now is, who is positioned to benefit from this rise in gold prices?

Your Thoughts on Gold’s Future

What do you think about the trajectory of gold? Do you see the $5,000 target as achievable or too optimistic? I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Feel free to share them in the comments below!