FedEx CFO John Dietrich Warns of Economic Slowdown in 2025 as Company Lowers Earnings Expectations in the U.S.

A major corporate leader is waving a red flag about the state of the U.S. economy, and it’s not just speculation—it’s based on real-world shipping data.

FedEx, one of the biggest players in global logistics, is warning that a slowdown is on the horizon, and its chief financial officer, John Dietrich, has already slashed the company’s earnings expectations for the rest of the year.

Shipping Data Reveals Trouble Ahead

Unlike many businesses that rely on forecasts and economic models, FedEx has a unique advantage—it can see economic shifts happening in real-time through its shipping volumes.

When consumer demand drops, retailers pull back on orders, and manufacturers scale down production, FedEx is one of the first to feel the impact.

And right now, the company is bracing for a rough ride.

“I think it’s reasonable to assume that the macro environment is not going to significantly improve, at least through the first half of fiscal 2026,” Dietrich said.

Strong Earnings, Falling Stock Prices

The warning comes on the heels of a surprisingly strong quarter for FedEx, where it exceeded Wall Street expectations.

But despite the positive earnings, the company’s stock has been on a downward trend, dropping more than 11% since January—outpacing declines in major market indexes.

This contradiction signals deeper concerns within the financial sector.

Even though FedEx is performing well now, investors are nervous about what’s ahead.

Uncertainty Around Tariffs Adds to Worries

FedEx isn’t alone in its concerns. Many business leaders are reportedly frustrated with the Trump administration’s unpredictability regarding tariffs on Canada and Mexico.

Over the past few months, the White House has repeatedly introduced and then delayed sweeping 25% import taxes, leaving businesses in limbo.

Now, the administration has announced that tariffs will officially go into effect on April 2, but this time with a more targeted approach focused on specific economic sectors.

Despite the clarification, many executives remain uneasy.

“It’s very difficult for companies to plan against this kind of background noise, which is why executives are flagging the uncertainty on their earnings calls,” explained Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at GlobalData.

He added that the lack of clarity is affecting consumer confidence.

“The changes are unnerving consumers and making them unsure about the future. This impacts their willingness to spend.”

Other Major Companies Are Feeling the Impact

FedEx’s warning isn’t an isolated case. Several other major corporations are also predicting a slowdown.

Walmart, for example, has stated that it expects its growth to shrink by a third in 2025.

Top financial executives, including JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, have both pointed out signs of an economic downturn.

Meanwhile, retailers like Best Buy and Target have already announced they will be forced to raise prices on popular products due to shifting trade policies.

Trump’s Take on the Economy

Even President Trump himself has acknowledged the potential for economic turbulence.

Earlier this year, he addressed the issue directly, telling the public: “There may be a little bit of an adjustment period—you have to bear with me.”

He defended his tariff policies, saying, “Tariffs are about Making America Great Again. There may be a little disturbance.”

Interestingly, after Trump hinted at a more measured approach to tariffs on March 24, FedEx’s stock—along with all three major stock indexes—saw a temporary boost.

But whether this optimism will last remains to be seen.

Looking Ahead: What This Means for Consumers

For everyday Americans, the warnings from FedEx and other major corporations could translate into higher prices, slower job growth, and economic uncertainty in the months ahead.

While some businesses may find ways to adapt, others could struggle if consumer spending pulls back.

As FedEx keeps an eye on shifting trends, its cautious outlook serves as a reminder that businesses and consumers alike should prepare for potential economic headwinds in 2025.