The world is facing a tense countdown as the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia is set to expire in just weeks.
Experts are warning that the end of this pact could trigger a new era of nuclear competition between the two superpowers.
The treaty, known as the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), was originally signed in 2010 and is scheduled to end on February 6.
It represents the eighth major arms control agreement between the U.S. and Russia since the 1963 treaty that banned nuclear testing in the atmosphere, space, and underwater.
Limits That Have Kept the Balance
New START has been crucial in limiting both nations to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads each.
Without it, the U.S. and Russia would operate without formal restrictions on their nuclear arsenals for the first time in nearly 50 years.
Considering that together they hold about 87 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Arms control specialists are warning that the treaty’s expiration could lead to both countries deploying warheads beyond previous limits, potentially unraveling decades of global arms control progress.
Stephen Herzog of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California explained that ending New START would reduce transparency and invite unchecked competition, especially in an unpredictable geopolitical climate.
Politics and Presidential Positions
The treaty cannot simply be extended. It was designed to allow only one extension, which was agreed upon in 2021 by Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. former President Joe Biden.
U.S. President Donald Trump, however, made it clear that he would allow the treaty to expire without accepting Russia’s offer to voluntarily maintain the limits.
“If it expires, it expires,” Trump told the New York Times, adding that the U.S. would aim for a “better agreement.” He also suggested that any future treaty should include China, whose nuclear arsenal is expanding faster than any other country in the world.
The History of U.S.-Russia Nuclear Treaties
The New START is just the latest chapter in a long history of nuclear arms agreements.
The first START treaty, signed in 1991, reduced the number of deployed strategic warheads.
START II, signed in 1993, aimed to eliminate multiple warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and retire Russia’s SS-18 missiles.
However, START II never fully came into force due to political disputes, and Russia officially withdrew in 2002.
New START eventually filled the gap, providing a framework that has held both nations accountable for limiting their arsenals.
Current Nuclear Capabilities
Russia currently possesses the most confirmed nuclear weapons, with over 5,500 warheads.
A Russian ICBM could reach the continental U.S. in roughly 30 minutes.
The U.S. maintains about 5,044 nuclear weapons, distributed across the country and hosted in allied nations including Turkey, Italy, Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Together, these two nations control nearly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons.
Other countries, like North Korea and Israel, have unconfirmed but significant nuclear stockpiles.
Estimates suggest North Korea could develop 40–50 warheads, while Israel has enough material for up to 200, with approximately 90 currently in existence.
Other Nuclear Treaties and Their Limits
While some global agreements aim to regulate nuclear weapons, their impact is limited.
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons pushes for total elimination but has no support from nuclear-armed states.
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) sees more participation but has limited effect on actual warhead numbers.
Among all these, New START has been the only treaty effectively ensuring that the U.S. and Russia reduce their arsenals.
Talks on the Horizon
Despite ongoing global tensions and the focus of both nations on the war in Ukraine, formal discussions about a successor to New START have yet to take place.
In September, Putin suggested extending the treaty for another 12 months and even proposed including the nuclear arsenals of Britain and France—an idea that was rejected.
Trump, for his part, expressed interest in a broader agreement with “a couple of other players” but did not specify which countries.
The world is now left watching closely as the treaty’s expiration draws near, wondering what the next chapter of nuclear diplomacy will look like.
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