Exit polls spark confusion as liberal mayor and right-wing rival both claim victory in Poland’s razor-thin presidential race

Poland’s political future is hanging by a thread after a dramatic and deeply divisive presidential election ended with two exit polls telling completely different stories.

The race has captured international attention—not just because of what’s at stake domestically, but also because of the bigger question: Will Poland lean towards the EU or embrace a nationalist, Trump-style agenda?

Two Candidates, Two Visions—and Two Different Polls

The race pits liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who’s staunchly pro-European Union, against Karol Nawrocki, a right-wing historian whose past includes street brawls and Trump-like rhetoric.

When voting ended, the first Ipsos exit poll suggested Trzaskowski had squeaked ahead with 50.3% of the vote to Nawrocki’s 49.7%—a statistical toss-up when you factor in the margin of error.

Just hours later, however, a second Ipsos poll completely flipped the script, putting Nawrocki in the lead with 50.7%, leaving Trzaskowski with 49.3%.

The official vote count is expected on Monday, but the suspense is already creating shockwaves throughout the country.

Both Camps Declare Victory Before Final Results

Despite the uncertainty, neither candidate waited for the final tally to claim the win.

Trzaskowski, speaking to an enthusiastic crowd in Warsaw, confidently declared, “We won.”

He emphasized unity and promised to be a president “for all Poles”—even those who didn’t vote for him.

Nawrocki, meanwhile, addressed his supporters with a more aggressive tone.

“We must win tonight,” he said, clearly emboldened by the swing in the second poll.

His campaign is infused with a populist edge and has drawn direct comparisons to Donald Trump—a connection he proudly embraces.

Nawrocki’s Trump-Like Messaging and Controversial Past

Nawrocki has borrowed heavily from Trump’s political playbook, casting himself as a fighter for the “forgotten” Polish citizen.

Just before the vote, he told supporters he was “the voice of all those whose cries do not reach Donald Tusk,” referring to the current centrist Prime Minister.

His campaign slogans—“Poland is the most important” and “Stop Migration Pact”—mirror Trump’s own branding strategies, and apparently, Trump took notice.

The former U.S. president has even invited Nawrocki to the White House for a photo op.

U.S. Officials Suggest a Nawrocki Win Keeps U.S. Troops in Poland

The Trump camp didn’t just show symbolic support.

During a recent visit, Kristi Noem, who heads the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, openly suggested that a Nawrocki victory would secure continued American military presence in the region.

“If you elect a leader who will work with President Trump, the Polish people will have a strong ally,” she told a Polish audience.

Her message was clear: America’s strategic friendship hinges on Poland’s political alignment.

A Violent Chapter in Nawrocki’s Past Resurfaces

But Nawrocki’s rise hasn’t been without scandal. His team recently confirmed reports that he once took part in a bare-knuckle brawl between rival football fans back in 2009.

The fight, which involved around 140 people, took place in a forest near Gdansk and has raised questions about his character and judgment.

Adding to the controversy, Nawrocki was also accused of reneging on a promise to care for an elderly, disabled man in exchange for the man’s apartment. The man ended up in a care home, allegedly abandoned.

What’s at Stake for Poland’s Political Direction

This isn’t just a personal battle between two contrasting candidates—it’s about the direction Poland takes next.

With current conservative President Andrzej Duda stepping down after his second term, the presidency becomes a powerful position.

The new president will hold veto powers over legislation passed by Donald Tusk’s centrist government.

So, whoever wins will either help advance a pro-European agenda—or block it in favor of nationalist policies.

The Whole Country Waits for the Final Word

With exit polls still contradicting one another and both sides claiming victory, all eyes now turn to Poland’s election commission, which says the full results will be out by Monday afternoon.

Until then, the country remains in limbo, and the world watches closely.