Recently, Donald Trump made headlines on X after thousands of posts claimed, “Trump is dead,” with over 95,000 mentions flooding the platform.
Social media reactions often exaggerate, but they highlight just how polarizing the former president remains.
The Personal View, known for predicting Trump’s 2016 victory and hinting at his 2024 run, has long raised an eyebrow at the risks surrounding a potential second term—not just politically, but personally.
The suggestion? If Trump wins again, the stakes could be life-or-death.
Historical Echoes: McKinley and Trump
Looking back over a century, there are striking similarities between Trump and William McKinley, the U.S. president assassinated in 1901.
Both presidencies occur amid extreme political polarization, economic change, and rapid technological disruption.
The Personal View has repeatedly drawn parallels between the 2015–2033 era and McKinley’s time from 1895–1913, highlighting structural shifts in politics and markets.
In short, both presidents:
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Reshaped their parties
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Emphasized economic nationalism
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Oversaw disruptive technological change
Trade Protectionism Then and Now
McKinley famously imposed the Dingley Tariff, pushing duties to a record 52%.
Trump mirrored this approach with his trade wars, particularly targeting China, and even proposed a 10% universal tariff for 2025.
Both leaders used protectionism to champion domestic industries and reshape global trade relationships.
Economic Nationalism at the Core
Both McKinley and Trump prioritized domestic production and strategic economic independence.
Correcting trade imbalances and boosting national self-reliance were central to their agendas, making economic nationalism a defining feature of their leadership.
Technological Disruption Across Eras
McKinley presided over electrification and industrial growth.
Today, Trump’s America faces a similar wave of disruption through AI, electric vehicles, and the rise of tech moguls like Elon Musk.
The parallels show how structural innovation can define a presidency—and a country’s economy.
Isolationist Tendencies
McKinley often prioritized national interest over international engagement.
Similarly, Trump withdrew the U.S. from global agreements like the Paris Accord, WHO initiatives, and the TPP, reinforcing a pattern of selective international involvement.
Structural Shifts in the Economy
Economic upheavals mark both eras. McKinley’s presidency foreshadowed the Panic of 1907 and the creation of the Federal Reserve.
Today, post-2020 financial policies may be setting the stage for their own form of systemic reset.
Risks to Leadership and Party Recalibration
McKinley’s presidency ended with assassination, a reminder of the threats leaders face.
Trump, though surviving multiple incidents—including a 2024 rally shooting—has navigated an era of intense political danger.
Both presidents also reshaped the Republican Party, emphasizing tariffs, nationalism, strong executive leadership, and business-first policies.
What This Means for Investors
These historical parallels aren’t just academic—they have real-world implications for markets:
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Continued support for oil, gas, gold, copper, and agriculture
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Higher defense spending and risk premiums in a fragmented global order
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Opportunities in non-correlated assets, real assets, and volatility hedges
