Every time Bitcoin hits a new high, the same question pops up: “Is this the top?” The latest surge past $123,000 in July reignited that conversation—only this time, it feels more intense.
Some believe this could be Bitcoin’s ultimate peak, while others remain confident that the price still has plenty of room to soar.
But as always with crypto, big gains also bring big risks—and not everyone’s convinced that the road ahead is all green candles.
Looking at the Past to Predict the Crash
To understand where Bitcoin might go next, crypto investor and market analyst Mike Alfred took to X (formerly Twitter) to lay out his perspective.
Instead of making a wild guess, he looked back at how Bitcoin behaved in previous bull and bear cycles.
His method? Simple: compare previous tops with the subsequent crashes.
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In 2014, Bitcoin soared to around $1,000 before plunging to $200—an 80% drop.
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In 2018, it fell from $20,000 to just $3,200, an 84% collapse.
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In the most recent cycle, it hit over $69,000 in 2021, only to tumble to $16,000 in 2022—again, around an 80% decline.
So if history keeps repeating itself (and crypto often loves a rerun), what happens next?
A Shocking New High Before the Drop?
According to Alfred, this current cycle might not be done just yet.
In fact, he predicts that Bitcoin could climb as high as $312,000 before the inevitable correction kicks in.
Yes, you read that right—three hundred twelve thousand dollars per Bitcoin.
But after that? He expects a massive correction that could drag prices back down to $75,000.
That would be about a 76% drop from the projected peak. Ouch.
The good news (if you want to call it that) is Alfred doesn’t think this crash will happen in 2025.
Instead, he believes we’ll see the dip in 2026, giving Bitcoin bulls a little more time to ride the wave.
Not Everyone’s on Board With This Outlook
As with most crypto predictions, not everyone agrees.
One user on X, named Becky, pushed back against Alfred’s lofty $300K prediction.
Her reasoning? The Realized Volatility chart suggests that such a dramatic move isn’t likely.
But Alfred clapped back with a fair point—realized volatility isn’t set in stone.
It’s changed plenty of times in the past, and it hasn’t always been reliable in predicting sudden price swings. So, in his eyes, it’s not a dealbreaker.
The Big Picture: Where Are We Really Headed?
While charts, predictions, and debates fill our feeds, the only thing that seems certain with Bitcoin is uncertainty. Big highs often lead to big lows.
And even though $300K might sound extreme, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility based on how previous cycles played out.
One thing’s for sure: Bitcoin’s wild ride is far from over, and whether you’re a casual investor or a crypto veteran, this next chapter promises to be a rollercoaster.
