Tensions between China and its neighbors are reaching new heights—not over land or military drills this time, but over something far more basic and essential: water.
While most of the world watches conflicts play out over oil, trade, and tech, Asia’s two nuclear-armed giants—China and India—are bracing for what some are calling the next big frontier in geopolitical rivalry: control over rivers that cross national borders.
China Starts Building the World’s Largest Hydroelectric Dam
China has officially kicked off construction of what is set to become the largest hydroelectric dam on the planet.
Known as the Motuo Hydropower Station, the massive infrastructure project was launched by Premier Li Qiang in a remote Tibetan village, and it’s already being hailed by Beijing as the “project of the century.”
The dam is being constructed along a sharp bend in the Yarlung Zangpo River, a river that later becomes the Siang, Brahmaputra, and Jamuna as it flows through India and Bangladesh.
China’s plan includes building five cascading hydropower stations, with massive tunnels drilled through solid rock to channel water into turbines.
When completed, the dam is expected to generate an astonishing 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually—more than three times what the current record-holder, the Three Gorges Dam, produces.
India and Bangladesh Warn of Potential “Hydrowarfare”
But not everyone is impressed.
Indian and Bangladeshi officials are sounding the alarm, calling the dam a potential “ticking water bomb” that could be used as a strategic weapon in times of conflict.
The core concern is that the Yarlung Zangpo is a transboundary river—its downstream flow sustains millions of people in India’s Arunachal Pradesh and in Bangladesh.
Leaders in the region worry China could easily control water flow, reduce supplies during dry seasons, or even unleash massive floods by suddenly releasing stored water.
Pema Khandu, Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh, warned that the Brahmaputra and Siang rivers could “dry up considerably” and described the Chinese project as a direct threat to livelihoods.
He even suggested that China could weaponize the dam by releasing huge volumes of water, leading to catastrophic downstream destruction.
China Stresses Its Sovereign Rights, Downplays Fears
Beijing, on the other hand, has brushed off these fears.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly defended its right to build dams on the Yarlung Zangpo, stating that China does not seek to harm its neighbors and aims to increase cooperation on disaster prevention.
Yet trust remains low. Back in 2017, India had already accused China of polluting the Siang River due to earlier construction efforts.
More recently, in 2024, India officially filed a complaint, voicing concerns over transparency and environmental impact.
India Plans Its Own Buffer Dam for Protection
India isn’t just relying on diplomacy.
To protect itself, the Arunachal Pradesh government has unveiled a proposal to build the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project—a dam that would serve as a buffer in case China suddenly releases large amounts of water.
However, Indian officials admit their challenge lies in the lack of information.
“China doesn’t share updates. We have to assume they’re already working on it,” Khandu said, adding that India’s best course of action is to strengthen its own defense measures rather than hope Beijing will be cooperative.
No International Rules Governing Shared Rivers
One of the biggest obstacles to resolving this growing water crisis is the absence of international oversight.
Neither China nor India is a party to the UN Water Convention, which establishes rules for managing transboundary water resources.
This means China has no legal obligation to maintain water flow to downstream nations or even inform them about new projects.
This legal vacuum is making countries like India and Bangladesh feel increasingly vulnerable.
India, for instance, supports nearly 17% of the world’s population but controls just 4% of the global fresh water supply, according to data from the Stockholm International Water Institute and the World Bank.
As a result, every drop counts.
Experts Warn Water Could Be the Next Battlefield
Water is quickly becoming a powerful political tool.
In fact, India recently demonstrated its willingness to weaponize water too.
Following the Pahalgam terror attack in April, which led to a short-lived conflict with Pakistan, India pulled out of the Indus Waters Treaty, a decades-old agreement to share water from the Indus River.
The move sparked major backlash, with Pakistani officials viewing it as a serious threat.
Dr. Manali Kumar, a foreign policy expert, warned that India’s actions could set a dangerous precedent and further encourage countries to use shared resources as bargaining chips in political standoffs.
Dam Projects Spark Fears of Environmental and Cultural Losses
Beyond geopolitics, environmental and cultural experts are worried about the devastating effects of the dam.
Tempa Gyaltsen Zamlha, an environmental researcher linked to the Tibetan government-in-exile, said the project will likely destroy parts of Tibet’s rich heritage and displace thousands of people from their ancestral lands.
Others point to the ecological consequences.
Brian Eyler, from the U.S.-based Stimson Center, warned that blocking the river could prevent fish from migrating and halt the natural flow of sediment—both of which are essential for downstream agriculture.
The Three Gorges Dam, for example, displaced over 1.4 million people and caused extensive ecological damage.
Experts fear the Motuo project could bring even worse consequences, especially since the Tibetan Plateau is one of the world’s most seismically active regions.
Calls Grow for Legal Protection Against Water Weaponization
With water-related violence and tensions rising globally—up over 50% in 2023 according to the Pacific Institute—many are pushing for stronger international laws.
Right now, manipulating water flows isn’t clearly classified as a war crime, leaving nations free to use it as a pressure tactic without consequences.
Advocates are urging institutions to wake up to the reality that water is no longer just an environmental issue—it’s a tool of modern warfare.
Some are calling for international sanctions, prosecutions, and reparations against those who deliberately weaponize rivers.
What Happens Next?
As construction continues in Tibet and diplomacy stalls, the risk of water-based conflict is becoming harder to ignore.
With no binding rules, little trust, and rising geopolitical tensions, Asia may soon find itself confronting not just water shortages—but water as a weapon.
The outcome will likely depend on whether countries can shift from confrontation to cooperation, and whether the world can agree that water is a shared resource, not a weapon of war.