When it comes to migrants crossing the Channel, weather often gets thrown into the conversation as a big factor.
But recently, the debate has shifted toward whether government policies, particularly the controversial Rwanda asylum scheme, actually made a difference.
Labour has been mocked for blaming better weather for increased crossings, but the data tells a more complex story.
Weather Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story
The Home Office released figures focusing on the so-called “red days”—days with calm weather that make crossing the Channel easier and safer.
They claimed that good weather tends to lead to more arrivals.
This statement was met with ridicule because the numbers showed something else: migrant arrivals dropped significantly when Conservative ministers were about to start flights removing people to Rwanda.
For example, after the Tories passed legislation aimed at overcoming legal challenges to the Rwanda plan, the number of crossings didn’t surge despite many “red days.”
In May 2024, there were 21 red days, a record for calm weather, but only 2,765 arrivals—similar to previous months with worse weather.
June 2024, just before the general election, had 20 red days but only around 3,000 arrivals.
Even right after the Rwanda scheme was announced in April 2022, arrivals stayed low despite calm conditions.
Political Shifts and Migrant Numbers
When Keir Starmer became Prime Minister last July, one of his first moves was to scrap the Rwanda asylum plan.
Since then, crossings have surged again, highlighted by the 1,195 small boat arrivals on a recent Saturday—the fifth highest daily total ever and the first time in over two and a half years the daily figure topped 1,000.
Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp argues this proves the Rwanda scheme had a real deterrent effect even before it was fully implemented.
He says, “The threat of removal to Rwanda discouraged migrants from coming even when the weather was favorable.”
Philp criticized Labour for canceling the plan, suggesting that expecting bad weather to stop illegal crossings is weak border management.
He added, “This government has no strategy, and that’s why 2025 is shaping up to be the worst year for illegal Channel crossings ever.”
What Do the Experts Say?
Researchers at Oxford University’s Migration Observatory challenged the government’s emphasis on weather as a main driver of crossings.
Dr. Peter Walsh, a senior researcher, pointed out there’s no solid evidence that weather conditions explain the long-term rise in small boat arrivals over recent months.
His take is that weather might only delay crossings in the short term but doesn’t fundamentally impact the numbers.
Instead, Walsh says factors like the number of people determined to reach the UK and the sophistication of smuggling networks are more crucial.
The Government’s Response
The Home Office highlighted that in the first four months of this year, there were 60 red days—more than double the number seen in the same period in 2024.
Yet small boat arrivals were also 46% higher, at 11,074 crossings.
A Home Office spokesperson insisted the government is regaining control over the asylum system, which had been exploited by smuggling gangs who took advantage of good weather to boost crossings.
To tackle this, they’re giving law enforcement enhanced powers similar to counter-terrorism measures, launching a major international crackdown on immigration crime, preventing thousands of crossings from the French coast, and returning tens of thousands of people since the election.
The government is also cracking down on illegal working, which it says fuels demand for these dangerous journeys, with arrests and enforcement actions up by over 40% under current leadership.
Looking Ahead
The debate over what drives Channel crossings is far from settled.
Weather may influence short-term patterns, but policy decisions, enforcement, and the determination of migrants and smugglers clearly play a huge role.
With rising arrivals and political controversies, the UK government faces pressure to find effective solutions—whether through tough new laws, international cooperation, or addressing the root causes of migration.
What happens next will be critical for border security and the asylum system in the months and years to come.