It’s been a rough stretch for companies that hold Bitcoin in their treasuries.
Once viewed as a smart way for investors to get exposure to the cryptocurrency with an added premium, these firms are now under pressure.
Falling market volatility and a dramatic slowdown in new Bitcoin purchases have eaten away at their edge, leaving investors questioning whether it makes more sense to just buy Bitcoin directly instead.
The Problem With Shrinking Volatility
Bitcoin treasuries typically trade at a premium above the value of the Bitcoin they actually hold.
That’s because investors expect these companies to grow their reserves, capitalize on market swings, and offer safer access to Bitcoin exposure.
But according to CryptoQuant’s Head of Research, Julio Moreno, that premium is collapsing.
Annualized Bitcoin volatility has dropped to multi-year lows, stripping treasury companies of one of their biggest advantages.
Without strong price swings, there’s little opportunity to profit from volatility or justify market values higher than their BTC reserves.
What the Data Shows
Looking at Strategy—the largest corporate Bitcoin holder—makes the problem clearer.
In the past, whenever Bitcoin’s volatility spiked, Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) shot up.
In fact, during early 2021 and mid-2024, it surged above 2.0, meaning shares were trading at more than double the value of their underlying Bitcoin.
Today, though, things look very different. Volatility has fallen to its lowest levels since 2020, dropping below 0.4 log daily return annualized.
With that flattening curve, Strategy’s mNAV has slid closer to 1.25, showing that investors are losing faith in the idea that treasuries can outperform simply holding Bitcoin outright.
Weak Demand Adds More Pressure
The lack of volatility isn’t the only problem. Investor demand has also weakened.
After a small burst of activity in late 2024 and early 2025, monthly Bitcoin purchases by treasury firms have plunged 97% since November 2024.
That’s left them with fewer ways to expand holdings or inspire enthusiasm.
Even though Bitcoin prices remain strong—trading around $115,810 after a 4.7% gain this week—Strategy’s mNAV has continued to drift downward.
Moreno warns that without a surge in volatility or fresh waves of large-scale purchases, treasuries won’t be able to maintain their premium.
Investors May Turn Back to Direct Bitcoin Exposure
The bigger picture is clear: unless conditions change quickly, Bitcoin treasury firms may lose their appeal as a premium vehicle for investors.
Without volatility-driven opportunities or aggressive accumulation strategies, the value of these companies will struggle to rise above the actual worth of their BTC holdings.
For investors, that could mean going back to basics—owning Bitcoin directly rather than relying on corporate treasuries to generate extra returns.