It’s been a dramatic few days for Bitcoin holders, with price charts looking more like a rollercoaster than a financial instrument.
From dropping below a crucial psychological level to snapping back with a strong recovery, Bitcoin has once again proven how reactive it is to world events—especially those involving geopolitical flashpoints.
Middle East Ceasefire Sparks Bitcoin’s Quick Rebound
Over the weekend, news that the U.S. launched military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities spooked investors, sending Bitcoin tumbling below $100,000.
The market panic was palpable.
But in typical crypto fashion, sentiment flipped almost instantly after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced.
Within hours, Bitcoin rallied back above $105,000, showing just how tightly it’s tethered to global political drama.
On-Chain Data Reveals What Traders Are Really Doing
While price action tells one story, on-chain analytics offer a deeper look into investor behavior.
A key model from CryptoQuant—called the UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio—gives a pulse on how many holders are in profit or loss.
Earlier this month, when Bitcoin hit a high of $112,000, the model soared to 34,000 points, signaling a rush of profit-taking.
But now? That figure has dropped all the way down to 216.
That massive plunge indicates that the wave of profitable selling has fizzled out.
Most remaining transactions are happening at a loss, which suggests that short-term sellers may be out of the picture—opening the door for new buyers to step in.
The Bulls Are Gaining Ground—But Resistance Remains
Bitcoin’s latest surge, climbing over 7% in just 25 hours, helped the coin reclaim a critical support zone around $103,600.
This level has acted as a pivot point since March, often flipping between resistance and support.
After briefly dipping below the 50-day simple moving average, BTC managed to recover quickly, adding to signs of renewed short-term strength.
What the Charts Are Saying Right Now
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin bounced hard from a low near $98,200, just above the 100-day SMA—a level that has historically been a magnet for dip buyers.
Volume also spiked on the latest green candle, suggesting real demand is coming back into the market.
Still, there’s one stubborn hurdle left: the $109,300 resistance level.
This ceiling has rejected multiple rally attempts since June, and unless Bitcoin breaks above it with conviction, we’re likely to remain stuck in this sideways pattern.
Profit-Takers Step Aside, Long-Term Buyers Step In
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler’s data lines up with the chart action.
As profit-taking dries up, long-term conviction seems to be creeping back in.
While there’s still risk of more volatility—especially with macroeconomic pressures and international conflicts in play—the sharp selloffs we’ve seen may start to slow down.
The Path Forward: Stability or More Swings?
For now, Bitcoin appears to be entering a calmer phase.
Holding above $100K is crucial, not just psychologically, but technically.
As long as that level holds, we could be setting the stage for a more sustainable rally.
But without a clear break above $109,300, traders should brace for more back-and-forth.
What Needs to Happen Next for a Real Breakout
To flip the current sideways market into a full-on breakout, Bitcoin needs a decisive daily close above that stubborn $109,300 barrier.
Until then, the market remains rangebound—reactive to headlines, but waiting for a clear trend.