Aston Villa’s recent form has left statisticians scratching their heads.
Hours after Morgan Rogers’ spectacular strike kept Villa firmly in the title conversation, the club did something unusual: they called out the numbers.
Villa have been on a remarkable run, winning 10 of 11 Premier League games.
Yet analysts insist that such success can’t last, pointing to the team’s relatively low expected goals (xG) numbers and the remarkable frequency of long-range goals.
When Stats Meet Social Media
Rogers’ winner at West Ham, a 3-2 thriller, was rated just 0.02 xG — a strike an “average” player would miss 98 times out of 100.
Villa’s official account reposted the clip with a cheeky “0.02 xG 😉” comment.
That small jab was viewed by 1.2 million people, highlighting just how much Villa fans care about their team’s defiance of the numbers.
The social media clash didn’t stop there.
Analysts suggested Villa should only be mid-table, but fans fired back, pointing to the club’s actual third-place position.
The back-and-forth made waves online, with millions engaging in the debate.
Outperforming xG: Luck or Skill?
While forwards like Ollie Watkins are underperforming their xG, players such as Rogers, Matty Cash, and Emi Buendia have been scoring from distance, often in ways the models struggle to account for.
Rogers, for example, has been practicing ‘knuckle-ball’ shots at Bodymoor Heath, mastering a technique that leaves goalkeepers helpless.
These skills, combined with dedication, mean his spectacular goals aren’t just flukes.
Unai Emery’s Masterclass Behind the Scenes
Villa’s coach, Unai Emery, is not your average manager.
While xG figures are presented to him, they don’t dictate his strategy. Every game involves a bespoke tactical plan.
Players are moved centimeters on the training ground to ensure perfect positioning, and meetings can stretch well past an hour, drilling down into every nuance of positioning, passing angles, and individual runs.
Where some strategies focus on one approach for all situations, Emery adjusts minute details to counter each opponent.
This meticulous preparation is one reason Villa consistently outperform statistical expectations.
Defying the Expected Points Model
Since Emery’s arrival in November 2022, Villa have scored 25 more Premier League goals than their xG predicts and conceded 13 fewer than expected.
Expected points calculations suggest Villa should be trailing behind, yet the team has consistently finished in the top seven and even reached the Champions League.
Gambling expert Alan Alger notes that Emery’s approach can counteract xG assumptions.
By allowing opponents to take low-quality chances while maintaining a disciplined defensive structure, Villa can appear “lucky” according to models, even when the performance is meticulously engineered.
xG Isn’t the Whole Picture
While xG was revolutionary when it emerged two decades ago, betting and analysis have moved on.
Experts now consider attacking patterns, individual player combinations, and other markers that provide a more complete picture than xG alone.
Even players engage with the numbers only when club staff present them; it’s rarely the driving factor in performance.
Emery’s attention to detail is unmatched.
Early starts, late finishes, and constant tactical refinement have instilled a belief in his squad that extends beyond statistics.
He expects focus, dedication, and an almost obsessive commitment to football from his players.
Can Villa Keep It Up?
With the combination of exceptional player skill, Emery’s tactical mastery, and meticulous preparation, Aston Villa appear equipped to defy the statistical odds for the long haul.
Numbers can suggest patterns, but in football, work ethic, ingenuity, and precision often write their own story — a story Villa are currently proving in spades.
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