The countdown is on for the 2025-26 Champions League, and anticipation is building across Europe.
With the first round of fixtures set for next Tuesday, fans are gearing up to see 36 top clubs battle for continental glory.
Premier League sides are once again well-represented, but not all of them are expected to shine according to the latest analysis.
Premier League Clubs in the Spotlight
Six English teams have secured their spots in this year’s competition: Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, Newcastle, and Tottenham.
Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea, and Newcastle earned their places through league positions, while Tottenham qualified as Europa League winners.
With Paris Saint-Germain entering as defending champions after their dominant win over Inter Milan last season, the stage is set for another thrilling tournament.
Opta’s Predictions Reveal the Front-Runners
Football analysts at Opta ran a staggering 10,000 simulations to estimate each team’s chances of lifting the trophy this season.
And the results? Liverpool emerge as the favourites.
Despite being knocked out by PSG in the last-16 of the previous campaign, Arne Slot’s side are tipped with a 20.4% chance of winning the Champions League.
Alongside that, Liverpool are predicted to have a 34% chance of reaching the final and an impressive 72.7% chance of making it to the quarter-finals.
It seems the Premier League champions are ready to make a serious European statement.
Arsenal and PSG Battle for Recognition
Arsenal are the second most likely to lift the trophy, with Mikel Arteta’s squad given a 16% chance of glory despite never having won the competition.
After finishing second in the Premier League for three consecutive seasons and reaching last year’s Champions League semi-finals, expectations are high for Arteta to deliver this time around.
Arsenal are also backed at 44.8% to reach the semi-finals again, while defending champions PSG are predicted with a 12.7% chance of retaining their crown.
Manchester City and Chelsea in the Mix
Manchester City, despite a shaky start in domestic play with two defeats from three games, remain strong contenders in Europe.
Pep Guardiola’s side are given an 8.4% chance of winning the trophy they previously lifted in 2023, a 16.6% chance of reaching the final, and a 31.1% probability of making it to the semi-finals.
Chelsea are also in the mix, ranked sixth overall and just behind Barcelona.
Their chances of lifting the trophy stand at 7%, highlighting the dominance of English teams among the favourites.
In fact, four of the top six predicted winners hail from the Premier League.
Champions League Winning Chances
Here’s a quick look at the predicted probabilities for selected clubs:
| Team | Chance of Winning |
|---|---|
| Liverpool | 20.4% |
| Arsenal | 16.0% |
| PSG | 12.1% |
| Manchester City | 8.4% |
| Barcelona | 8.4% |
| Chelsea | 7.0% |
| Real Madrid | 5.8% |
| Newcastle | 3.0% |
| Tottenham | 1.1% |
Mixed Fortunes for Newcastle and Tottenham
For Newcastle, returning to the competition after a year away, chances are modest but respectable at 3%.
They are the 10th favourites to lift the trophy, reflecting both excitement and caution.
Tottenham, however, face a tougher outlook.
Thomas Frank’s team, who struggled last season under Ange Postecoglou, are given just a 1% chance of winning the Champions League for the first time.
Still, they have a 22.9% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and have a promising group stage schedule, including home matches against Villarreal and clashes with Monaco, PSG, and Dortmund.
First Fixtures Set for Key Premier League Teams
The opening fixtures promise plenty of drama.
Liverpool will host Atletico Madrid at Anfield next Wednesday, while Arsenal travel to Spain to face Athletic Bilbao a day earlier.
Manchester City will welcome Napoli next Thursday, and Newcastle face a huge test at home against Barcelona.
Fans can expect a full week of Champions League action before the Europa League begins on September 24 and the Conference League kicks off on October 2.
European football is back, and the stakes have never been higher.