The Champions League draw has landed, and while some teams are rubbing their hands with excitement, others are already bracing for a tough ride.
Thanks to a detailed analysis by Opta’s supercomputer, we now know which clubs have been handed relatively gentle schedules—and which ones are staring down a mountain of elite opposition.
For Arsenal, Tottenham, and Chelsea, the fixtures bring a reason to be optimistic.
Newcastle, however, may already be thinking about how to survive the group stage.
Arsenal’s Schedule Gives Arteta a Smiling Start
Mikel Arteta’s men have emerged as one of the big winners of the draw.
Their group includes Olympiacos, Slavia Prague, and Kairat Almaty, the Kazakh champions ranked 474th in the world—a clear opportunity to pick up points.
Even with matches against Bayern Munich and Inter Milan on the agenda, Arsenal’s overall fixture difficulty ranks as the third easiest among all 36 clubs in the new 36-team format.
With four games at home and four away, the balance looks as favourable as Arteta could have hoped for.
Tottenham Also Enjoy a Kind Path
For Spurs, managed by Thomas Frank in his first Champions League campaign, luck seems to have smiled too.
Their opponents include Dortmund, Villarreal, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Bodø/Glimt—four relatively light draws.
The group also features tougher tests against Paris Saint-Germain and Monaco, but overall, Tottenham’s schedule ranks fourth easiest according to Opta’s calculations.
Compared to the potential nightmare scenarios, Frank’s men can feel fortunate.
Chelsea and Liverpool Find Opportunities
Chelsea, back in Europe under Enzo Maresca, have also received a manageable set of fixtures.
Matches against Ajax, Qarabag, and Pafos of Cyprus offer a chance to collect points before facing giants like Barcelona, Bayern Munich, and Napoli.
Liverpool’s draw mixes glamour with opportunity.
While Anfield will host Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid, the Reds also face Frankfurt, Marseille, and Qarabag—matches they may view as more winnable.
Manchester City’s Middle-of-the-Pack Challenge
Pep Guardiola’s City sit somewhere in the middle.
Their group includes Real Madrid for the fifth consecutive campaign, as well as Leverkusen, Villarreal, Dortmund, Napoli, and Galatasaray.
It’s a demanding lineup but not the absolute hardest, and City will be confident of improving on last season’s play-off round exit.
Newcastle Faces a Steep Climb
For Newcastle United, however, the situation looks daunting.
Eddie Howe’s squad faces one of the five toughest fixture lists in the competition, with Barcelona, PSG, Leverkusen, Benfica, Union Saint-Gilloise, and Athletic Bilbao all on the menu.
This group represents five of the eight toughest opponents English sides could have drawn, testing the depth and European experience of a squad still finding its feet in continental competition.
Hard Schedules for Bayern and PSG
Bayern Munich and PSG also find themselves with challenging draws.
Tottenham, Arsenal, and Newcastle appear on PSG’s schedule, while Bayern must navigate fixtures against Arsenal, Sporting Lisbon, and a resurgent Union Saint-Gilloise.
Even so, history shows that a tough draw isn’t always a death sentence—last season, Luis Enrique’s side overcame the hardest schedule to claim their first European Cup.
What It Means for the Knockouts
For Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, and Liverpool, there’s plenty to be optimistic about.
A combination of winnable fixtures and high-profile ties offers a chance to build momentum heading into the knockouts.
Newcastle’s road looks steeper, but they can take heart from their spirited St James’ Park performances in 2023.
One thing is clear: the Champions League’s new 36-team format is delivering drama before a single ball has been kicked.
