Bitcoin went into the Sunday close sitting just below its year-to-date highs, and traders were anything but relaxed about it.
The price was floating above $91,000, markets were thin, and everyone knew what that usually means — a perfect setup for sudden moves designed to shake people out of their positions.
Over the weekend, Bitcoin climbed roughly 2%, a move that looked modest on the surface but was big enough to shift sentiment.
With traditional markets still closed, crypto traders were left watching order books, heatmaps, and macro headlines for hints about what Monday might bring.
The backdrop? Rising geopolitical tension after fresh US-Venezuela developments, which added another layer of uncertainty to already nervous markets.
Liquidity zones are shaping trader expectations
Instead of guessing direction, many traders focused on where the money actually is — the big liquidity pools.
Data from exchange order books showed that a major concentration of liquidity sat below price, around the $88,000 area, which also lines up with the yearly open. That zone is seen as a magnet if the market decides to sweep stops before making its next move.
On the upside, $92,000 has become the key level bulls are watching. It’s been a stubborn ceiling for a while now, and clearing it would change the tone of the market.
Above that, things get interesting fast. There’s relatively little resistance between $95,000 and $100,000, meaning that if Bitcoin manages to push through the sell walls around $92K–$95K, price could travel quickly.
The market is still haunted by fake breakouts
Recent weeks have trained traders to be cautious. Several weekly closes have triggered “fakeouts” — sharp moves that look like breakouts, liquidate a bunch of positions, and then reverse back into the range.
That history is why many are hesitant to trust any single candle close right now.
Still, there are early technical signs suggesting something may be changing. On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, a structure that often precedes a larger directional move. Around $90,000 is now viewed as the line in the sand for keeping that bullish structure intact.
Macro tension is spilling into crypto, stocks, and commodities
The Venezuela situation isn’t just a political story — it’s a market story.
Traders expect ripple effects across oil, equities, bonds, and crypto as futures reopen. Venezuela’s role in energy markets alone is enough to cause volatility, but there’s another angle getting attention: gold.
Venezuela holds the largest gold reserves in Latin America, and with over 160 metric tons, even small shifts in policy, trade, or sanctions could influence the gold market.
Gold had already started to weaken into the end of the year, just as crypto was bouncing back — a contrast that hasn’t gone unnoticed.
Bitcoin versus gold is starting to tilt
Some analysts are watching not just Bitcoin’s dollar price, but how it performs relative to gold.
That ratio has started to trend upward, which is often interpreted as a sign that investors are shifting risk back toward crypto and away from traditional safe havens. It’s not a confirmed breakout yet, but the structure is improving.
Another supportive signal: Bitcoin’s weekly RSI recently hit its lowest point since the end of the 2022 bear market — a condition that, historically, has often preceded stronger upside moves.
What’s next?
Bitcoin is sitting in a pressure zone.
Below it lies heavy liquidity around $88K that could pull price down in a stop-hunt. Above it sits a thin resistance band that, if broken, could let price move quickly toward $100K.
Add in global macro tension, thin weekend liquidity, and nervous traders — and you get a market that feels primed for a sharp move in either direction.
The coming days will likely decide whether Bitcoin finally escapes its long-standing range or whether it delivers yet another frustrating fakeout before the real move begins.
Either way, the calm is probably temporary.
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