As Bitcoin continues its remarkable climb, traders and analysts are questioning whether the rally has already reached its peak. A widely shared cycle model has brought this conversation back into the spotlight, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be approaching a critical turning point.
Price action near $117,000 this week keeps both cautious and bullish investors on edge.
Cycle Model Points Toward a December Top
The chart in question tracks previous Bitcoin market cycles, noting peaks roughly 30 months after prior market lows.
Extending that pattern to the current cycle, which began in November 2022, the model projects a top on December 22, 2025.
Interestingly, the same curve hints at a mid-cycle price target near $200,000.
Market watchers are paying close attention because the pattern suggests each successive cycle tends to last longer than the previous one, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin’s current rally could follow a familiar, if stretched, timeline.
Veteran Trader Outlines Downside Scenario
Not everyone is focused on upside potential. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has publicly shared a cautious perspective.
He estimates a 30% chance that Bitcoin has already peaked in this cycle and warned of a potential pullback to the $60,000–$70,000 range by November 2026.
After that, he foresees a subsequent major rally that could push prices toward $500,000.
Brandt emphasized that this is a probability-based scenario, not a firm prediction, intended to help traders consider risk management rather than declare certainty.
Bitcoin’s Current Trading Snapshot
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $117,790, down slightly by 0.90% over 24 hours.
In broader terms, the cryptocurrency has risen 18% over the past six months and 24% year to date.
These steady gains explain the mixed opinions: some see a market that has already run far, while others view it as still having room for growth.
Key Signals Traders Should Watch
For investors looking to test these scenarios, the most telling indicators are market flows and positioning.
Observing ETF and institutional inflows, exchange balances, and derivatives data can provide insight.
A consistent stream of institutional buying would make a deep retrace less likely, while sustained outflows, rising exchange inventory, or heavy derivative liquidations would support the possibility of a pullback toward the $60,000–$70,000 zone.
Weighing the Question of a Peak
Brandt’s scenario—30% chance of an early peak, potential drop to $60,000–$70,000, then another rally toward $500,000—gives traders a concrete framework for risk planning.
It’s a reminder that even in a surging market, careful observation and position management remain essential.