Bitcoin Struggles Below $90,000 as On-Chain Data Signals Seller Exhaustion and Market Stabilization Across Global Crypto Markets

Bitcoin has spent the past couple of weeks circling the $90,000 mark without managing to push through it. Since mid-December, every attempt to break higher has been met with resistance, and that repeated rejection is starting to weigh on market confidence. For many traders, it feels less like a pause and more like the market catching its breath — or bracing for something tougher ahead.

That hesitation has fueled talk of a longer corrective phase heading into the new year. Price action alone paints a cautious picture. But once you look under the hood, the story becomes a bit more layered.

---

On-Chain Data Tells a Calmer Story Beneath the Surface

While price remains sluggish, on-chain metrics suggest the panic selling seen earlier may be behind us. Analyst Axel Adler recently highlighted Bitcoin’s realized loss data, using a seven-day moving average combined with a z-score to track market stress.

This measure looks at how much loss is being locked in when coins move on-chain, with the z-score helping flag extreme conditions. What it shows is a sharp contrast between November and late December.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

In late November, selling pressure peaked dramatically. Around November 21–22, realized loss z-scores surged into extreme territory, and daily losses crossed the $5 billion mark. Fast forward to December 26, and the spike looks modest by comparison, barely touching a z-score of 1.6.

More telling is the broader trend. Weekly realized losses have dropped from roughly $2.4 billion at the height of the selloff to about $500 million — levels last seen back in early autumn.

---

Signs of Seller Exhaustion Are Starting to Appear

According to Adler, this steep decline isn’t just a quiet weekend or a temporary pause. It points to something more structural: seller exhaustion. In simple terms, many of the investors who were willing or forced to sell may have already done so.

Historically, when realized losses collapse this sharply, markets often move into a stabilization phase. Prices don’t necessarily rebound right away, but the downward pressure tends to ease as selling dries up. That seems to be what December represented — not a breakout month, but a cooling-off period after November’s capitulation.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

---

Net Realized P/L Shows the Market Slowly Regaining Balance

Another key metric Adler examined is Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit and Loss, again smoothed over seven days. This indicator compares realized profits to realized losses across the network. When it’s negative, losses dominate and capital is being wiped out. When it turns positive, profit-taking is back in control.

Right now, the metric is still below zero, meaning the market hasn’t fully shaken off its defensive posture. However, the trajectory is improving. Over the final week of December, the depth of negative net P/L was cut nearly in half.

What stands out is that this improvement happened without a meaningful price rally. That suggests it’s not driven by speculation or short-term pumps, but by a genuine reduction in forced selling.

Historically, when net realized P/L starts climbing toward the zero line, it often marks a transition phase. Selling pressure fades, supply tightens, and the groundwork for a local recovery begins to form — even if price hasn’t caught up yet.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

---

November, December, and the Setup for January

Taken together, the on-chain data tells a consistent story. November appears to have flushed out the weakest hands. December acted as an absorption zone, where losses normalized and selling pressure eased. If that pattern holds, January could become a turning point — but only if fresh demand steps in.

Without new buyers, stabilization can easily slip into stagnation. The data shows stress has cooled, but it doesn’t guarantee an immediate upside move.

---

Price Action Remains Stuck in a Tight Box

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still trapped below $90,000. On lower timeframes, price has been consolidating around $87,600, moving sideways in a narrow range that has defined much of the second half of December.

This behavior reflects a clear stalemate. Buyers are stepping in around the $86,000–$87,000 area, while sellers continue to shut down rallies near resistance.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Bitcoin is also trading below its declining 200-period moving average, which sits near the $89,000–$90,000 zone and continues to act as a ceiling. The 100-period moving average has flattened and is hugging price, reinforcing the lack of momentum. Shorter-term averages have started to roll over, keeping short-term pressure tilted to the downside.

---

Compression Builds as a Bigger Move Looms

Since mid-December, price structure has tightened noticeably. Lower highs are forming beneath resistance, while higher lows are developing above support. This kind of compression usually means volatility is being squeezed — and that often precedes a decisive move.

The $86,000 level remains the key line to watch. A clean break below it could send Bitcoin back toward the low $80,000s. On the flip side, a strong reclaim and hold above $90,000 would flip the structure bullish and signal renewed momentum.

For now, Bitcoin sits in limbo. The panic appears to have faded, but conviction hasn’t returned. Whether January brings resolution or more sideways frustration will depend on which side finally blinks.

(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

Share on Facebook «||» Share on Twitter «||» Share on Reddit «||» Share on LinkedIn