As the festive season approaches, political winds are shifting in the UK.
Recent polls suggest that the Conservatives, under Kemi Badenoch, are making unexpected gains, closing the gap with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
After months of political turbulence, the survey hints that voters are starting to take notice of new faces and fresh ideas on the Right.
Conservatives Narrow the Gap
The latest end-of-year poll puts the Conservative Party at 22 per cent, up from 20 per cent last month.
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has slipped to 25 per cent.
Analysts suggest that Badenoch’s more confident appearances in the Commons and her policy proposals, such as abolishing stamp duty and rethinking the ban on new petrol and diesel cars, are resonating with voters.
Lord Ashcroft, former Conservative deputy chairman, highlighted the volatility of the current political scene.
Just a month ago, Reform UK held a seven-point lead, raising questions about Farage’s potential to challenge for Downing Street.
Today, his path to power seems increasingly dependent on a coalition with the Tories.
Labour’s Struggles Continue
For Labour, the outlook remains grim.
The party is trailing in fourth place, just behind Zack Polanski’s Greens.
Without a resurgence, Labour’s hopes of returning to power likely depend on forming a Leftist coalition with the Greens and Lib Dems.
Combined, such a bloc would capture 47 per cent support—matching the combined strength of the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Badenoch’s rise is partly attributed to her ability to calm unrest within her own party, presenting herself as a confident and competent alternative to the current Labour Government.
Meanwhile, doubts about Reform’s ability to govern beyond Farage’s personal brand are growing, with only 17 per cent of voters believing the party has the talent to run an administration.
Voter Appetite for an Election
Discontent with the current Government is high.
The survey shows that 39 per cent of voters want a general election next year, while 26 per cent prefer to wait until 2029.
Labour loyalists are more cautious—half want the party to stay in power for the full term, while only 17 per cent want an early vote.
Many supporters hope that a leadership change, possibly bringing in figures like Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, or Angela Rayner, could reverse Labour’s fortunes.
However, public confidence in Labour figures remains mixed.
For example, while 51 per cent of Labour voters want Rayner back in Cabinet following her stamp duty controversy, only 26 per cent of the general population agree—and many doubt she could outperform Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.
Festive Fun Poll Rankings
Despite slipping in political support, Farage remains top of the rankings in the lighter, festive elements of the poll.
He is the party leader people would most like to spend New Year’s Eve with and is humorously described as “most likely to hide in the pub until Christmas lunch is ready,” “burn the lunch,” or “cause a festive argument.”
By contrast, Sir Keir is seen as the one “most likely to make a boring speech” or sneak away to work, while Badenoch is viewed as the helpful presence, “most likely to clear up after Christmas lunch” and even the most popular pick for a mistletoe kiss.
Economic Concerns Cast a Shadow
Even as political personalities dominate the headlines, the economy weighs heavily on households.
According to the survey, 38 per cent of people expect to have less money for presents this Christmas, while only 11 per cent anticipate being more generous than last year.
The poll gathered responses from 5,195 voters between December 11 and 15, providing a snapshot of a nation balancing political curiosity with festive anxieties.
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