It’s that time of year when pollsters ask all sorts of unusual questions, and Lord Ashcroft’s latest survey is no exception.
Voters were asked to picture a Labour office Christmas party — and the results are almost comically bleak.
Most imagine a dull event in a Holiday Inn off the M6, with arguments over flags on cakes, Keir Starmer delivering the most boring speech, and some even suggesting Labour might skip Christmas altogether.
On the surface, this might seem trivial, but the picture it paints of Labour’s standing is surprisingly revealing.
Labour’s Slide Through 2025
Earlier in the year, Labour was comfortably leading in polls.
Fast forward to December, and the party finds itself in fourth place, behind Reform, the Conservatives, and the Greens.
Several challenges have contributed: winter fuel cuts, struggles with illegal migration, a stagnating economy, the pursuit of Net Zero over affordable energy, two-tier policing, digital ID proposals, restrictions on trial by jury, and rising taxes with little to show for it.
Strategic Moves on the Left
Labour’s recent decisions may look self-sabotaging, but Ashcroft argues they are deliberate.
The party is clearly circling its Left-wing wagons, prioritizing its core base over centrist or centre-right voters.
Raising taxes on working people to fund expanded welfare — particularly lifting the two-child benefit cap — signals a conscious shift to solidify left-leaning support.
Other moves, such as revisiting Brexit policies and showing recognition for a Palestinian state, reinforce this strategy.
Even proposals to tighten immigration rules, though controversial among the Left, appear aimed at shoring up credibility while maintaining progressive credentials.
The Right Is Not Standing Still
Meanwhile, the Right is reshaping its own landscape.
Nigel Farage has mostly stayed out of the limelight lately, aside from resurfacing in discussions about decades-old remarks.
Voters seem reluctant to judge him for events 40 years ago, which helps Labour remind Left-leaning voters why uniting behind them might be the safest choice to prevent Farage from rising.
Kemi Badenoch, by contrast, is gaining popularity.
She impressed with her Budget response, carved out a distinct Conservative economic stance, and has become a more prominent figure while Reform wobbles on key policy areas.
Voter Preferences Highlight Complexity
Voting patterns reveal a nuanced picture.
Supporters of Left-wing parties overwhelmingly list another Left party as their second choice, while a significant share of Reform and Conservative voters are open to alternatives if their preferred party isn’t running.
This makes any Tory-Reform alliance more complicated than some strategists might hope.
Momentum Shifts and Party Strategies
Earlier in the year, Reform rode a wave of voter anger.
By year-end, the Conservatives made gains by diagnosing problems and presenting solutions.
Labour, in turn, appears to have retreated into a defensive posture under Starmer, concentrating on holding its core base together rather than chasing wider appeal.
The Takeaway
So, while Christmas polls may appear frivolous — office parties, cake flags, mistletoe musings — they highlight serious political dynamics.
Labour is consolidating the Left, the Right is recalibrating under new leadership, and voter preferences reveal a deeply fragmented political landscape in the United Kingdom.
Ashcroft’s research underscores that while parties jockey for position, strategy and perception often matter as much as policy itself.
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