After weeks of waiting — and plenty of nail-biting on Wall Street — the September jobs report finally appeared.
And the instant it did, markets reacted like someone flipped a switch.
The headline number landed at 119,000 new jobs, far higher than the modest uptick economists had been bracing for.
They’d expected something closer to 50,000.
But as always with these reports, the devil sits quietly in the revisions.
The Summer That Looked Better Than It Was
Once officials went back and rechecked the earlier months, the picture got a bit gloomier.
July wasn’t quite as strong as first advertised, nudging down from 79,000 to 72,000.
And August — which originally squeaked out a 22,000 gain — actually turned into a drop of 4,000 positions.
All told, the updated math wipes out 33,000 previously counted jobs, a reminder that the labor market has been wobbling for months.
Unemployment also edged up to 4.4 percent.
Wall Street Shrugs Off the Bad and Loves the Good
You might think all that would spook investors, but no — the mood was surprisingly upbeat.
The fresh September figure was strong enough to send the major indexes climbing the moment the report dropped.
It capped off what traders jokingly called a “triple whammy,” though for once, all three hits were pleasant ones.
Nvidia blew past expectations yesterday, easing jitters about overheated AI spending.
Walmart followed this morning with better-than-expected sales, quieting concerns about weakening consumers.
And now the jobs number has arrived to round out the picture.
The First Real Data Since the Government Freeze
Part of the relief came simply from finally having real government data again.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics had been forced to delay the September numbers after the shutdown — a messy stretch that left investors and the Federal Reserve leaning on scattered private surveys.
So today’s report is the first truly official look at the labor market in nearly two months, and a welcome one at that.
A Labor Market That’s Slowed to a Creak
Even with September’s strong headline, the bigger trend hasn’t changed: hiring has been cooling all year. Back in January, businesses added 143,000 jobs.
Since then, gains have chipped away month by month.
August barely eked out 22,000 new positions. July posted 79,000.
And June? That one actually dipped into the red with a loss of 13,000 jobs — the first monthly decline since the early pandemic shocks.
Before the shutdown, economists had expected the unemployment rate to stay at 4.3 percent and wages to grow modestly.
In other words, they weren’t anticipating fireworks.
Joseph Brusuelas, RSM’s chief economist, put it simply: the labor market is “holding in there,” but there isn’t much to brag about.
A Missing Chapter in the Jobs Story
Even with today’s data, the picture is far from complete.
Because of the shutdown, the government won’t publish a separate October report at all.
Instead, those numbers will be rolled into November’s release on December 16 — and that combined report won’t include an unemployment rate for October.
Brusuelas warned earlier that the country is “muddling through a period of pervasive uncertainty,” and that the first truly clean read on the labor market may not come until February.
Why This Monthly Report Matters So Much
For anyone tracking America’s financial health, the jobs report is one of the most important documents Washington produces.
It shows whether employers are hiring or retreating, whether workers are getting raises, and how many people are struggling to find work.
Healthy hiring, rising wages, and low unemployment signal an economy with breathing room.
Weak hiring or outright cuts send up a flare that the engine may be sputtering.
The Federal Reserve watches these numbers almost as closely as it watches inflation.
What the Numbers Mean for Interest Rates
Because strong hiring can reignite inflation, today’s surprisingly solid report immediately lowered the odds of a rate cut in December.
Traders now put the chances at just 30 percent.
Goldman Sachs had earlier warned that October likely experienced job losses, partly due to furloughs and shutdown-related disruptions.
And Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics didn’t mince words earlier this year: he warned the U.S. had slipped into a “jobs recession” — a situation that could drag the broader economy into a sharper downturn if the trend doesn’t reverse.
So, What Happens Next?
With October’s data missing and November’s report arriving later than usual, Wall Street and policymakers will be flying partly blind until the end of the year.
The next clean, stable reading may not come until well into 2026.
For now, investors seem content to take today’s win — while keeping one eye on the horizon for the next bump in the road.
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