In a world where everything from housing to groceries feels more expensive than ever, it’s no surprise that younger Americans are rethinking big life decisions—especially when it comes to starting a family.
A new report from the Pew Research Center reveals that adults in their 20s and 30s today are planning to have fewer children than people in the same age group did just a decade ago.
Family Goals Have Shifted Over Time
Back in the early 2000s, it was fairly common for young adults to envision families with two or more kids.
Between 2002 and 2012, the average number of children that Americans aged 20 to 39 hoped to have was around 2.3. Fast forward to 2023, and that number has dropped to just 1.8.
That’s a noticeable shift—and one that suggests changing priorities, rising costs of living, and other personal or societal factors could be influencing family planning decisions more than ever.
Where This Data Comes From
Pew’s analysis is based on statistics from the National Survey of Family Growth, which is managed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The survey digs into everything from birth rates to marriage and contraception, and it offers insights into how Americans are thinking about their reproductive health and family life.
Importantly, the numbers reflect both children people already have and those they still plan to have.
It didn’t include adopted children in the count, though children placed for adoption were factored in.
The Decline Dips Below Replacement Levels
A particularly striking detail from the report is that the average number of children young adults plan to have now falls below what’s called the “replacement rate”—that is, the 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain a stable population over time.
By 2023, this number had dipped under that threshold for both men and women in the 20–39 age bracket, signaling long-term implications for demographics, labor markets, and even future government policies.
Women in Their Early Twenties Are Leading the Decline
When broken down by age and gender, the numbers show even sharper declines in younger groups.
Women between the ages of 20 and 24 once said they wanted about 2.3 kids on average.
Now, that number has dropped to just 1.5.
Women in the 25–29 age group also saw a dip—from 2.3 down to 1.9 children. And women in their early 30s went from planning for 2.5 kids to around 1.9.
What Might Be Behind the Shift?
While the report doesn’t delve deeply into the “why,” experts have pointed to a few possible explanations.
Economic uncertainty, career ambitions, the rising cost of childcare, housing affordability, and a growing focus on personal freedom and flexibility all play roles in how young people view parenthood today.
It’s also worth noting that broader cultural shifts—such as the normalization of having children later in life or not at all—may be influencing how people see their futures.