As the Iran-Israel war intensifies with near-daily airstrikes, nuclear threats, and growing international anxiety, all eyes are on former U.S. President Donald Trump—who, according to insiders, is on the brink of a pivotal decision.
Over the past several days, Trump has been receiving detailed briefings on the strategic risks and military options related to Iran, particularly focused on whether and how the United States should join Israel’s military campaign.
A Tense Two-Week Window
Trump has told his advisors that he will make a final decision within the next two weeks on whether to commit the U.S. to direct military action against Iran.
His hesitation isn’t about whether to stand with Israel—that’s never been in doubt—but about how far to go, especially when it comes to targeting Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facilities.
Fordow: The Flashpoint
At the center of this strategic puzzle is Fordow, Iran’s infamous uranium enrichment plant buried 80 to 90 meters underground.
U.S. military officials have informed Trump that conventional weapons won’t be enough to destroy it.
They’ve proposed using bunker-busting bombs to soften the ground, followed by tactical nuclear strikes from B2 bombers to finish the job.
This led to explosive media reports claiming Trump was considering nuclear strikes on Iranian soil.
However, the former president has publicly rejected that idea—for now.
According to insiders, while nuclear options were discussed, Trump made it clear he would not greenlight a nuclear strike unless absolutely necessary.
That said, White House officials have not formally ruled out the possibility, and the language around this issue remains vague.
The Inner Circle: Who Trump Is Listening To
Unlike during his first term, Trump’s current circle of influence appears narrower and more exclusive.
He is said to be relying on a tight group of senior aides, including his vice president, chief of staff, deputy chief of staff, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Notably, he’s marginalized key figures like Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard, both of whom reportedly oppose military escalation in Iran.
This inner circle dynamic is shaping his cautious yet assertive approach.
Trump, known for soliciting a range of opinions before making bold moves, appears to be filtering out dissenting voices this time around, focusing only on those who support or align with his worldview.
Diplomatic Efforts in Geneva: A Delicate Balancing Act
While Trump deliberates, diplomatic talks are unfolding in Geneva, where European foreign ministers and Iran’s top diplomats are exploring a possible diplomatic off-ramp.
Trump has not explicitly endorsed the talks but hasn’t opposed them either.
Behind the scenes, he’s allowing European partners—particularly the UK, France, and Germany—to test whether Iran might be willing to de-escalate.
British Foreign Secretary David Lammy and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio both see a narrow opportunity to reach a diplomatic solution within the two-week window Trump has carved out.
Lammy emphasized the urgency of this moment, saying, “a window now exists… to achieve a diplomatic solution.”
Trump, meanwhile, remains firm on two conditions: Iran must stop attacking Israel, and it must abandon any pursuit of nuclear weapons.
As one insider put it, “Trump wants peace—but on terms that don’t make the U.S. look weak.”
Russia Weighs In: Nuclear Warning From Moscow
In a dramatic twist, Russia’s Kremlin has issued a public warning, urging the U.S. not to consider tactical nuclear weapons against Iran.
A spokesperson said such an act would be “catastrophic” and potentially trigger wider conflict across the Middle East.
This warning adds further pressure on Trump’s team to find a non-nuclear path forward—something European diplomats also strongly support.
Domestic and Global Fallout Looms
If Trump chooses to intervene militarily—nuclear or not—it will mark a major shift in U.S. foreign policy and could drastically escalate the conflict.
On the home front, the move would divide public opinion, strain relations with war-wary Americans, and trigger questions about the legality and morality of preemptive strikes.
Internationally, the fallout could include mass migration out of the Middle East, rising oil prices, retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases, and perhaps a fracturing of the fragile global consensus around containing nuclear proliferation.
A Tense Wait Begins
Donald Trump is standing at a geopolitical crossroads.
While he’s not eager to start another war, he’s made it clear that he won’t allow Iran’s nuclear ambitions—or attacks on Israel—to go unchecked.
Whether he opts for diplomacy or firepower, the next two weeks will likely define the future of U.S. involvement in the Middle East, and possibly reshape global security as we know it.