Imagine a disease once thought nearly wiped out suddenly making a dramatic comeback—this is the growing fear among health experts in the U.S. Measles, a highly contagious viral illness, is on the brink of exploding again if vaccination rates keep slipping.
Scientists warn that if the trend continues, millions could become infected in the coming decades.
Alarming Predictions from Recent Research
A team of researchers at Stanford University has crunched the numbers and painted a stark picture of what lies ahead.
Their model predicts that if the number of people vaccinated against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR vaccine) drops by just 10%, the U.S. could see over 11 million measles cases within the next 25 years.
That would mean around 444,000 infections every year, with about 30,000 deaths linked to the disease.
Even a smaller decline of 5% could result in roughly 5.7 million cases and 2,500 deaths over that same period—an average of 228,000 cases and 320 deaths annually.
And in a worst-case scenario, if vaccinations fall by half, the country might face an overwhelming 51 million cases, more than 10 million hospitalizations, and upwards of 150,000 deaths.
Current Vaccination and Case Numbers: A Warning Sign
To put these numbers into perspective, the U.S. has had just over 5,500 confirmed measles cases in the past 25 years, averaging about 223 cases a year.
That figure spiked to nearly 1,300 in 2019 but dropped sharply to 13 cases in 2020 due to pandemic-related restrictions.
Despite these low numbers, if vaccination coverage doesn’t improve, experts warn the U.S. risks losing its “measles elimination” status within the next two decades.
The MMR vaccine, which is about 97% effective, plays a crucial role in preventing severe illness.
Yet nearly all cases—96%—occur in unvaccinated individuals, and among them, hospitalizations and deaths remain significant.
Texas: Ground Zero for the Current Outbreak
Right now, the largest measles outbreak in 30 years is centered in West Texas, particularly in Gaines and Lubbock counties.
Vaccination rates in these areas fall below the recommended threshold, with only 74% of children vaccinated in Gaines County and 92% in Lubbock.
Texas has reported 728 measles cases this year alone, with over 400 in Gaines County.
Tragically, three children—two from Texas and one from New Mexico—have died. New Mexico has also reported 71 cases.
While Texas’s overall MMR vaccination rate hovers just below the 95% herd immunity mark at 94%, some local pockets like the Loop Independent School District in Gaines County have vaccination rates as low as 46%.
This localized outbreak has spread to multiple states, serving as a grim preview of what could happen nationwide if vaccination rates drop to similar levels.
How Researchers Projected the Future
Stanford scientists used a sophisticated computer model incorporating data from the U.S. Census, CDC surveillance, and National Immunization Surveys spanning 2004 to 2023.
They tested various vaccination scenarios, from current rates of 87–95% to hypothetical increases or decreases of up to 100%.
The takeaway? Even slight drops in vaccination coverage could trigger massive outbreaks.
Measles was declared eliminated in the U.S. over 40 years ago thanks to widespread vaccination efforts—an achievement estimated to have saved 94 million lives.
But now, experts worry that hard-won progress may be unraveling.
Experts Sound the Alarm
Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist from Vanderbilt University, told DailyMail.com, “We are now in danger of losing the elimination designation, and we were well ahead of the world before.”
So far this year, over 1,020 measles cases have been confirmed across 31 states, with 92% connected to 14 distinct outbreaks.
Dr. Schaffner added, “Given that the current outbreak continues and has spread to other communities, we could potentially lose that elimination status. Here we are stepping back to yesteryear.”
The Role of Vaccine Exemptions and Hesitancy
Part of the problem is an increase in vaccine exemptions, especially for religious reasons.
Back in 2014, about 1.7% of schoolchildren had such exemptions.
After a 2015 outbreak at Disneyland caught national attention, exemptions briefly fell but then climbed again, reaching 2.5% in 2019—the same year the U.S. saw its highest measles count in decades.
The COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted routine vaccinations, pushing exemptions up to 2.8% in 2021, and by 2023 the number rose to 3.5%.
This has resulted in MMR coverage for kindergartners falling below the crucial 95% herd immunity threshold.
Meanwhile, vaccine skepticism has gained more visibility and influence.
High-profile figures like Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have promoted debunked claims linking the MMR vaccine to autism, fueling the anti-vaccine movement.
Why Clusters of Unvaccinated People are Especially Risky
Dr. Schaffner explains that unvaccinated children often cluster in certain schools or communities rather than being spread out randomly.
This clustering makes it much easier for measles to spread rapidly once introduced, putting entire groups at risk.
Measles symptoms include a high fever, cough, and a characteristic red rash.
But the dangers go far beyond these initial signs.
About 1 in every 1,000 children with measles develops encephalitis, a serious brain swelling that can cause permanent damage.
Long-Term Dangers of Measles
A rare but devastating complication, subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE), can appear years after infection.
Affecting about 2 in every 100,000 measles cases, SSPE leads to progressive brain damage, memory loss, seizures, and ultimately death.
What Comes Next?
The data and current outbreaks paint a sobering picture: Without a renewed commitment to vaccination, the U.S. could face a public health crisis with measles at its center.
The path forward depends on increasing vaccine coverage, addressing misinformation, and protecting vulnerable communities before the disease spreads further.