Gold has always been an intriguing asset, and as markets continue to shift, it holds significant potential for investors.

Back on March 8, 2021, when gold was trading at $1,690 per ounce (R31,074), I recommended that investors start buying and accumulating the metal.

This recommendation has since become one of my most defining calls, and if you want to understand its long-term value, you can revisit those posts from that time.

Why Gold’s Ascent Is Still on Track

A recent question from a Middle East-based institutional private credit fund manager got me thinking.

They asked, “Could a series of trade agreements lead to a sharp drop in the gold price?”

While short-term price swings are always a possibility, my belief remains unchanged—gold’s long-term trajectory is still strong.

Since my initial recommendation, gold’s price has surged, surpassing the $3,000 mark (R55,161) in early 2025.

On February 26, 2025, I revised the target to $5,000 (R91,935) over the next 12 months, based on the market’s ongoing developments.

Expecting volatility is realistic—after all, a 5–8% correction is typical for a healthy market trend.

However, I do not foresee a dramatic crash, even if trade agreements and political shifts continue to unfold.

The Bigger Picture: Macro Forces in Play

To truly understand the bullish outlook for gold, it’s essential to grasp the larger macroeconomic forces at play.

Back in January 2016, I published a piece titled “The USA – Major Themes 2015–2033,” where I compared the period between 2015 and 2033 to the transformative years of 1895–1913.

The earlier period saw massive changes in industry, finance, geopolitics, and technology.

There are notable parallels between then and now:

Trade Protectionism: Just as tariffs under President McKinley in 1897 marked a shift, today’s US-China trade tensions are reshaping global trade.
Energy Transition: The shift from coal to electrification in the early 20th century mirrors today’s transition toward renewables and electric vehicles.
Tech Disruption: The rise of AI, quantum computing, and robotics now echoes the technological breakthroughs of the past, like the Model T, plastics, and radio.
Immigration Shifts: In both eras, shifts in labor markets are transforming economies.
Financial Reset: The 1907 Panic led to the creation of the Federal Reserve; today, we face a similarly strained financial system.
Isolationism: Just as there was a retreat from global integration in the early 1900s, today’s trend toward isolationism continues.

In both these eras, gold played a crucial stabilizing role, not as a speculative asset, but as a trusted foundation of monetary credibility.

It’s the kind of stability we’re seeing again today.

The Current Landscape: Why Gold Is Essential

Today, the gold market is seeing increasing demand driven by several key factors:

Central banks in Asia and the Middle East are actively stockpiling gold.
The process of de-dollarisation is gaining momentum.
The gold market is facing tighter supply conditions, due to fewer new discoveries, higher mining costs, and underinvestment.
Geopolitical fragmentation is making gold an attractive neutral store of value.

While trade breakthroughs might capture headlines, they don’t address the deeper structural issues at play—like fiscal fragility, currency depreciation, or systemic economic dysfunction.

These agreements may change how things operate, but they won’t fix these underlying problems.

Why Gold Remains a Pillar of Financial Security

Gold continues to be a cornerstone asset in any portfolio, offering protection not just against inflation or geopolitical turmoil, but also against broader economic instability and currency devaluation.

This is why my forecast stands firm: gold will reach $5,000 (R91,935) within the next 12 months from February 26, 2025.

This isn’t just a price prediction; it’s the culmination of years of macroeconomic analysis, rooted in history, geopolitics, and a deep understanding of global trends.

The path to $5,000 is clear—who’s in position to benefit?