The United Aryan factory, located just outside Nairobi, Kenya, produces products like Wrangler and Levi’s jeans destined for American stores such as Walmart and JCPenney.

While it’s based in East Africa, the clothing produced here carries the essence of Americana—thanks to the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a U.S. law that has allowed for duty-free access to goods from Africa for over 25 years.

AGOA’s Expiration Puts Thousands of Jobs at Risk

However, AGOA is set to expire in September unless U.S. President Donald Trump agrees to extend it, putting hundreds of thousands of African livelihoods at risk.

The decision comes at a critical time, with many factory owners, including those at United Aryan, eagerly awaiting news of the program’s renewal.

Although the initiative enjoys bipartisan support in Congress, the situation remains uncertain, especially with Trump’s well-known skepticism of free trade.

The clock is ticking: by next month, the factory needs to know whether AGOA will continue in order to plan for the year ahead.

United Aryan alone ships up to eight million pairs of jeans annually to the U.S., and without AGOA, U.S. buyers will likely turn to cheaper Asian manufacturers.

The Impact on Local Communities and Workers

The United Aryan factory has been a lifeline for the local community.

When it opened in 2002, the area surrounding the factory was plagued by crime and instability, with local gangs stealing valuable materials.

Today, however, CEO Pankaj Bedi proudly points to a transformed community, where 150,000 people—directly and indirectly—depend on the factory’s success.

Norah Nasimiyu, a worker representative, shares how her community has benefitted.

“Our families are happy, our children go to school, crime has gone down,” she said, surrounded by colleagues stitching denim and sewing pockets.

The factory has had its struggles, though.

New global trade rules in 2005, the 2008 financial crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic nearly wiped out the business.

But despite these setbacks, Bedi remained determined. “When you have 150,000 people depending on what you do, you have a responsibility,” he said.

The Clock Ticks for the Future of Trade with the U.S.

Now, with AGOA’s future in jeopardy, the factory faces its most significant challenge yet. Without the duty-free benefits, U.S. buyers will likely seek cheaper alternatives in Asia, leaving African factories in the dust.

There’s hope among both Republicans and Democrats in Congress for a 12-year extension, which would provide the long-term security needed for companies to thrive.

However, President Trump’s stance on free trade leaves the situation up in the air.

Professor Bedassa Tadesse from the University of Minnesota Duluth points out that trade policies are no longer just about cost-benefit analysis.

There’s hope that Trump might see AGOA as a way to counter China’s influence in Africa, especially after the U.S. cut billions in humanitarian aid to the continent.

Witney Schneidman, an AGOA expert at the Brookings Institution, warns that it’s unlikely the issue is on Trump’s radar right now.

It’s small change in Trump’s worldview, but it’s very important as an instrument in US-African relations,” he said.

The Final Countdown for Factories and Workers

Despite the uncertainty, Bedi remains hopeful. “America cannot produce what we are producing, so he has to find an alternative.

Where better than Africa?” he said. However, time is running out.

The factory and its clients need clarity by the end of March, or they risk halting production altogether.

“Buyers have started to panic. We’ve been assuring them that it will be okay,” Bedi said, his fingers crossed for a favorable outcome.

This article was published on TDPel Media. Thanks for reading!

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